I started watching Marriage Story, after 10 minutes watching two whingy middle class arty types I skipped to the last five minutes and yup it seemed like the ending I was expecting.
Looks dull as dishwater.
Congratulations The Irishman on your upcoming Oscar success.
I think we're looking at The Irishman, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Ford vs. Ferrari, Us, The Two Popes, and The Lighthouse.
Those are guesses, of course, but they've got the Buzz.
That leaves three slots unattended, and I'd say that they might throw Disney a bone. Maybe nominate Star Wars, Captain Marvel, or Endgame. I'd rather they didn't, but who knows what kind of pressure the Mouse can bring now that they own about 50% of all movies, right?
Midsommar also got some good buzz, but...we'll see. And I could see it going either way with Knives Out. If it's more Gosford Park type stuff and less zany comedy. Haven't seen it; can't say.
As for what will *win*?
The Irishman is a major output for Scorsese. If the Academy feels as though they've snubbed him too much, and/or that he doesn't have another Great Movie in him, they might toss him a second statue.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood might be an excuse they need to give Tarantino an Oscar. They might feel they "owe" him one. They also kinda like movies about Hollywood and set in LA. On the other hand, they might be annoyed because he didn't give Margot Robbie enough lines, so...
Marriage Story or The Two Popes (assuming they live up to their trailers) would be the dark horse candidates here. I don't think they'll out-buzz the other two, but they might match or surpass the quality.
To me those are the serious contenders. I'd lean towards The Irishman. But I think it's neck-and-neck for that top pair.
I agree with your overall assessment, but I wouldn't legitimately consider Us or The Lighthouse in the "real" Oscar race. Meaning, every year we have like 10 nominees but only 2-4 real contenders. Movies like Black Panther, Get Out, Arrival, Hell or High Water, The Martian, Mad Max Fury Road, etc. don't REALLY have a chance of winning. Not to say that those movies aren't great, but they're just not Best Picture "material" if we go by historical precedent
The Best Picture and Best Director have been split so many times over the last few years, that I'd easily predict Scorsese to win another Best Director Oscar and then giving some other bum the Best Picture Oscar
If Roma can't win because the academy hates streaming, then I don't see it fairing any better for The Irishman. And as Green Book won last year, you can't really make definitive statements like these anymore
I loved both The Irishman and Marriage Story. I think The Irishman is currently the frontrunner but Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or Parasite could potentially win. I think 1917, Joker, and Jojo Rabbit will get nominated but aren't likely to win.