Yes, he DID lead her on
When she kisses him and he pulls back and says something like "if I've done anything to lead you on....etc....IMO he did lead her on. Having champagne just the two of them in the HOTEL room, her staying in the same suite but in another bedroom, giving her the watch. Also, telling her "you've been so much more than a friend." I think he dug her having a major crush on him. Also, after his wife died, he didn't seem to grieve very much and it looked as if he didn't take any time off at all before he was right back in he office. I don't blame this poor, deranged woman for getting the wrong idea.
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