Why TZP won't (unfortunately) win an Oscar?
In my personal view, TZP is a much better piece of cinematic work than Lagaan.
Still, I believe that its not going to hit the bull's eye. Why?
I offer two explanations that are worth inspecting because a film, ultimately, is never solely judged by its cinematic merit, instead viewers' cultural upbringing, context-specific attitude, ans a host of psychological elements influence their perception towards a film.
The two main problems with TZP, from this angle,unlike Lagaan are"
1. In Lagaan the villagers were fighting the British empire.Guess why its important? Because at some deep level americans always 'enjoy' it so much when a power from European culture is defeated. This,somehow,boosts up their morale about American values, only when contrasted and won against any country from Europe. Lagaan had that, TZP does not have that. Given the animosity between Americans and French, or Britons at a colloquial level, its very much expected that the judges would love Britons' ass to be kicked at the end. Unfortunately TZP does not offer that psychological boost factor.
2. A related idea is that Lagaan represented an India that is exactly the way Americans and westerm civilizations have been fed by the media to view it. Poverty, uneducated, nasty no-white creatures are fighting a colonial power. Again there is a reinforcement to their uninformed idaes about India. And again, TZP does not have it.
So, lets not feel bad about TZP's failure. Instead lets try to understand the important roles of various subtle factors that go into decision-making in general.