That is patently untrue. Anyone that thinks that the Japanese government was surrendering doesn't understand how the Imperial Government worked. The people trying to offer the victors of the war terms for their own surrender had absolutely no legal authority to do so. Only the Supreme War Council, or the Emperor could tell the military to stand down, and in the case of the Council a unanimous vote was needed. Those trying to get terms for surrender from the Soviets had no power in the government to do so, and the Soviets and the rest of the Allies were aware of this.
Being that the Allies were offering no terms, had the Emperor intervened of his own accord, the Supreme War Council would have been within their rights to 'protect' the Emperor by putting into their custody and disregarding his order to surrender, as that would cause his life to be in danger.
Those who were in charge of the military in Japan, did not surrender before the first bomb, they did not surrender after it, and only after over 20 hours after the second bomb did they finally surrender. As it was, there was no unanimous vote of the Supreme War Council, and half of them wanted to continue the war. After hopeless days of deadlock in the Council one of the pro-surrender members entreated the Emperor to intercede, which he did, and ordered the surrender. This still almost didn't happen, as a group of junior officers staged a coup of the Emperor's palace to prevent the order to stand down from being issued. They were eventually talked down by their general.
It is possible, had the Allies offered terms of allowing the Emperor to stay in power, then the Emperor would have been inclined to intercede sooner and the Supreme War Council wouldn't have been able to take him into protective custody. It is not likely that the 3 hardliner members of the War Council that were preventing a surrender even after two atomic bombs would have capitulated even with terms being offered. They were willing to accept a Pyrrhic victory.
This term for surrender was proposed, but there was precious little intel about Japanese culture and the role of the Emperor in the government. From the perspective of those in charge, allowing the Emperor to stay in power seemed a lot like offering terms to Germany that would allow Hitler to stay in power. Again though, even had they offered terms to the Japanese government that allowed the Emperor to stay in power (which after the Japanese accepted defeat, this term was accepted by the Allies for the Emperor, but not for the PM) from the beginning there is no guarantee that it wouldn't have taken either the bombs, or a land invasion.
It is very plausible that had the bombs not been dropped, even if terms for surrender were offered that a land invasion would have been necessary, which would have prolonged the war, and produced a higher body count. As long as the Supreme War Council believed that a land invasion was necessary for them to be defeated, they still had some hope for victory as a land invasion favored their forces and they believed that they could inflict enough loss of life against the Allies to cause them to lose their taste for battle, leaving Japan crippled, but undefeated.
The atomic bombs signaled to half the War Council and to the Emperor that there wasn't going to be a land invasion. The fire bombings were not a precursor to a land invasion, but the first stages of a nationwide siege. What would have happened without the bombs is anybodies guess, but that doesn't make it guesswork.
It is certainly a distortion to put out a narrative in which the bombs were strictly a US scare tactic against Russia. It is completely revisionist to say that there was no tactical reason to use them, and that Japan had already surrendered, or was in the process of trying to surrender, as both of those points are very far from being true. Other means of ending the war could have been pursued, but that doesn't mean that they absolutely would have been successful. There was definitely a way to end the war that had a higher human cost attached, and that was avoided. It is a nice thought to think that there was a better way to end the war with even less human cost attached, but it may just be wishful thinking on our end. There will never be a way to know for sure.
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