I thought there might be a tie in to his past. The news commentary on the shooting talks about how it had just been discovered that "Coleman" had lost his family 5 years earlier, but they dismissed the fact as having been too long ago. (And he also tell the neighbor that he has lived in his current house for 5 years.)
I had an idea that perhaps the plane tire was meant to suggest a random accident that might have taken the life of McConnel's (the "real" Coleman's) family. They go back to that theme of living under the "falling tire" zone when they show the two of them drinking win out on the balcony watching planes land. Not coincidence that her house would be right on the runway approach.
Frankly I didn't care for it. I thought it was a little to borrowed from Donnie Darko. They could have just made the plane crash from a faulty tire, or thought of a dozen other "random" falling projectile deaths. And, by the ending, they still had not connected the dots. It was like when they made the final cut they said, "Airplane tires, what airplane tires?"
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