"Both of those possibilities are instantly traced back to Tommy. If Mike killed Moe, then Freddy would know that his hitman was specifically targeted. Had Michael fled the wedding reception, then Moe would've told Freddy that Mary-Rose saw the hit about to go down."
Oh come on. Do you seriously believe that? There's no WAY Freddy could instantly know that Michael was tipped off if Moe failed to ice Michael and was killed instead. Moe's not exactly known as the most competent guy in the world. There's NO WAY to deduce that Michael was tipped off and even LESS REASON to believe he was tipped off from Tommy if Moe was dead. It's not like Moe had shared meticulous details with Freddy on his airtight plan on how he was going to ice Michael so Freddy would have enough confidence that Moe would get the job done. Moe's whole approach was half ass and ad libbed. He didn't even know how it was going to happen and Freddy knew Moe was a dumbass and could easily make a mistake. There would be just as much reason to believe Moe made a mistake than that Michael got tipped off. He could suspect a tipoff but he could never know for sure, and the tipoff could have happened from a bystander that saw Moe waving a gun for all he would know. If Moe was dead, to claim Freddy would instantly know the tipoff came from Tommy when there's no conceivable way he could possibly know that is just nonsensical.
I think if you were being honest with yourself you would acknowledge how paper thin your claim is.
And even if Michael escaped and Moe survived I doubt he would even admit to Freddy that he was spotted by Tommy's daughter to save himself the embarrassment of having Freddie mock him for getting spotted by a kid. But even if he did, so what? Freddie would have much larger problems to worry about Michael gunning for him for setting him up than to worry about Tommy. And what's he gonna do to Tommy, jeopardize the snow plow contracts he got by bringing scrutiny on himself and Tommy? No that would be ludicrous. He's going to try to assassinate Tommy for tipping his brother off that Moe was planning on killing him? No, that would be ludicrous too. Wise guys like Freddie of all people would know that assassinating politicians would bring heat on him like no tomorrow that he would never want.
He would have to expect that Tommy would try and save his brother. They're family after all. He would hold it against Moe for screwing it up by getting spotted and would either have to go to war with Michael or try to make peace with him.
I agree that he urged Michael to leave because he was facing heat from Ellis. But it seemed to me like he was planning on tipping him off should Michael agree to disappear. But since he didn't, he chose not to because in spite of Michael saying Tommy could tell Ellis whatever he wanted to Tommy still didn't want the scrutiny of Ellis that would remain from Michael sticking around.
In many ways that conversation was a mirror of the final conversation at the end of season 3. In both Tommy was kind of giving Michael an ultimatum although Michael didn't realize it. In the season 3 ultimatum Tommy was much more explicit, saying in 24 hours you'll be either dead or in jail. Michael said there's no way he could ever go back to jail, to which Tommy said "I know, you're my brother, I really don't want to see you dead".
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12 years ago
[deleted]
eYeDEF
12 years ago
"- Moe's dead
- Michael has vanished
- Tommy threatened to have Michael get rid of Moe.
What do you think will register in Freddy's mind during that moment?"
Sorry I don't recall when Tommy threatened to have Michael get rid of Moe unless you're talking about at the wedding, at which point he didn't have to show his cards to Freddy.
So at that point Freddy would first think that Moe bungled the hit because Moe is such a dumbass. Of course he would have to consider Michael got tipped off but there is NO SMOKING GUN THAT LEADS TO TOMMY. Sorry but there's just isn't. There'd be more reason to believe one of his own guys tipped off Michael to curry favor with him since Michael was coming up and could challenge Freddy than to think a tip came from Tommy who would have no plausible way of knowing. There's not only no smoking gun, but there's no trail whatsoever that would make Freddy connect the dots that Tommy could have obtained that information. None. So your claim that Moe's death would automatically "be traced back to Tommy" just isn't true and it's bizarre that you would refuse to acknowledge this fact.
"He could suspect a tipoff but he could never know for sure, and the tipoff could have happened from a bystander that saw Moe waving a gun for all he would know.
Really?..."
Sure. What if it had been some good samaritan bystander who saw Moe sneaking up and trying to ice Michael in the middle of the parking lot and yelled out a warning to Michael who then blew away Moe? The half ass way Moe had in mind of taking out Michael in the middle of a public parking lot with his gun drawn out and clearly visible while approaching demonstrates how he's hardly the sharpest tool in the drawer. Doing so is subject to all sorts of random possibilities of interference, as he discovered when he was spotted by Tommy's daughter.
"And yet, this same incompetent character is going to be able to make up a believable lie to tell his boss? Freddy has enough sense to know when Moe is lying: he's probably used to prying the truth outta' him on a daily basis."
And he also knows that Moe is a dumbass and could have easily botched the hit. Why is it so hard to admit this? There's no shame in admitting you were wrong, it won't be the end of the world.
"Tommy is suppose to represent state's government and would be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law if he was ever caught accepting cash, illegally. I'm certain that whatever would happen to Freddy - in this mutually assured destruction scenario - worse would happen to Tommy."
The point is that there was no reason for Freddy to evoke a MAD scenario regardless if there was asymmetric damage. That there would be any potential damage to him at all would be unwanted. Tommy had done him the favor of giving his son a proper burial so he already had his foot in the door where he felt Tommy could be a future asset to do business with. You don't burn a potential asset like that because your dumbass surrogate was stupid enough to get spotted by the mark's niece who tipped him off, and you ESPECIALLY don't burn an asset like that if it's going to bring any potential heat upon yourself. Because like I said, what could he reasonable expect if Tommy had information like that but to tip off his brother? But this tangent largely irrelevant anyway since I've already explained how there's NO reason to suspect Tommy could have knowledge like that if Moe were dead.
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