You're pretty much right there, but I'd go so far as to say that in light of the events on the Russian front in WWI, it wasn't necessarily such a huge mistake by Hitler to fight on two fronts. In hindsight it's obvious that it contributed significantly to his defeat, but with a faster, more powerful, more mobile army and supply lines than was possible in WWI, it was very possible that he could have quickly crushed what was a poorly trained, equipped and commanded Russian army. The country has something of a history of disasterously fought campaigns going back to Napoleon's invasion.
The Russians came perilously close to defeat in the earlier stages of the conflict, whatever the geographical situation may appear to have been. If Moscow and Stalingrad had fallen it would have been over and Hitler could have allocated resources to an invasion of Britain which, once achieved (assuming he didn't simply force Britain to surrender) would have made it all but impossible for the US to launch operations in Europe.
In terms of US involvement, they had the luxury of relatively late engagement in both conflicts. They didn't even have an army to speak of at the beginning of WWI and had to beg and scrounge artillery and transport from the French and British when they finally did get involved. However, the sheer force of numbers and fresh tactical approach they brought was the decisive factor that finished off a fading German army. By WWII Hitler must certainly have been aware of the dangers of history repeating itself, but the US, while they played their part on the Western front, wasn't as crucial to his defeat as the resistance of the Russians.
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