Anyone else read the book? It sounds like in the book it's ambiguous. As for the movie, I rented one by one from Blockbuster Online, so I couldn't go back to "Mutiny" to watch the sequence again, but there are quite enough flashbacks in "Retribution."
I think it's meant to stay ambiguous, but I think there are several clear elements to consider. (Warning: this is a long, nerdy post attempting to get a definitive answer to the question!):
1) In the sequence, it does indeed look as though the Captain merely falls back. As it's been pointed out, there's no reason for him to have been pushed when he was backing away from Archie, who was unarmed.
2) In the flashbacks, the others on the scene did in fact have their arms out when the Captain fell, but it very much looked as though they were putting their arms out to try to keep him from falling.
3) For the Captain to have fallen backward from having been pushed, the guilty party would have had to push him from the front, face-to-face. The only person directly in front of him was Archie. This could mean that Archie did, in fact, push him, but the sequence doesn't seem to imply that he lunged forward at all--plus, the Captain, based on his range of memories, should have easily been able to remember Archie lunging at him--and he didn't.
4) After the fall, Horatio said to Bush (I think--or it could have been Buckland he was speaking with) something to the effect of "Yes, we were discussing some sort of mutiny, but then events played themselves out so that we thankfully didn't have to do anything." I don't think Horatio would have lied at that point; if he really did push the Captain, I don't think he would have said that.
These elements seem to point out that no one pushed him; he fell.
But then there are these more sketchy elements:
5) Wellard, when he comes in with the gun and says to the Captain "I can't have you remember, I will not see them hang," is clearly signing his own death warrant. He's young and somewhat inexperienced, but he's certainly not dumb, as seen in the last two episodes. He knows very well that he's probably going down: if he shoots the Captain, there's a slight chance others will think a Spaniard did it, but he could well be caught, and that's certain hanging. His statement sounds on the surface to mean that he's trying to protect the others in that he thinks Hornblower pushed him and he doesn't want the Captain to remember that. But it could also mean that he thinks the Captain's instability could cause him to 'remember' being pushed by whomever he wants to indict, Hornblower being his biggest perceived nemesis. Wellard could also mean that he is the one who pushed the Captain, and he'd rather get it over with now and die in battle knowing the the Captain is gone than go through a messy court-martial of the lieutenants and possibly get them hanged with him.
6) The most interesting element is Hobbs' testimony in court. He says that he can't tell them who pushed the captain. Why? Well, Hobbs seems to hate Hornblower and the others out of his blind loyalty to the Captain, and throughout the episodes is determined to find someone to blame for the fall. So, when he finds Wellard and the Captain dying on the floor of the quarters, he tells Wellard to tell him who did it, to "get it off your chest." Wellard does seem to whisper in his ear, and Hobbs looks startled. Then Horatio comes onto the scene. Now, at that point, if Wellard had said that Horatio did it, wouldn't Hobbs have said the usual vitriol to Horatio's face, e.g. "You hypocrite, I know now that you're the one who did it, and by God, I'll see you hang!" He would have at least glowered, but he says nothing. One could argue that maybe he was afraid Horatio would kill him, but that's highly doubtable. By then, he knows Horatio and has fought side-by-side with him and been treated as an equal; he knows HH is not that kind of guy. So there are a few possibilities here:
a) Wellard told Hobbs that HH did it, and Hobbs is now protecting HH because he's come to respect him.
b) Wellard told Hobbs that he was actually the one who pushed the Captain, and Hobbs is protecting Wellard's name as he was with the young man as he died with the Captain as though protecting the Captain, and had changed his feelings toward him because of that.
c) Wellard told Hobbs that he doesn't know who pushed the Captain, or that the Captain merely fell. Hobbs is disappointed to have no proof against HH, and thus says nothing when HH comes in; rather than tell the court that Wellard actually told him that the Captain wasn't pushed or that he didn't know who did it, he says that he can't tell, hoping that his silence (while staring at HH) will just further indicate Horatio's guilt rather than contradict the accusation of Buckland.
7) The Captain being "pushed" or not pushed is actually not the only matter at hand; prior to the fall, the 4 officers were basically discussing possible mutiny. It's established early on that even saying words that sound like mutiny is enough for a man to get hanged. I think this is an important element in the story, because the fact that they were almost caught making plans by the paranoid Captain is the big deal; if caught, he would have certainly made sure they'd all hang. They had made no plans; they were running away/hiding to avoid having been seen conferring together rather than being on watch. It's highly improbable that they would have quickly thought, "Aha, we can get him in front of that hole and then push him!" Archie comes out from hiding (at his own risk) to attempt to show that they aren't hiding anything. Improbable that they would risk pushing him in front of others who were behind him who might see. This would explain everyone's hesitancy to say anything about the incident; even if no one was guilty of pushing the Captain (which, at this point, I'm arguing), they were guilty of making plans for mutiny and almost being caught in the act.
8) Wellard plays a huge role in the story, and is established early on. If we're to argue that he's the one who pushed the Captain, he's given plenty of motive in advance to make it plausible. Not only has the Captain basically scapegoated him and virtually terrorized him; he has great loyalty to Horatio. He was the only one who knew that at least the 3 officers were making plans, and was on watch to try to cover for them. When Hobbs started after him, he's the one who came down to warn the 4 officers. He wasn't actually hiding with them, so he didn't know if they'd planned anything yet. When Archie comes out of hiding and the paranoid, semi-deranged Captain is pointing two guns at him, Wellard could have impulsively sought to defuse the situation and turn attention off Archie and Horatio by 'helping' the Captain step backwards since he was on his side and not seen directly. Also interesting/cryptic was his little episode on the canon when he has a flashback and says to Horatio something like, "Have you ever done something and then forgotten it?" It's possible that he thinks he did it, whether or not he actually did.
9) Based on Horatio and Archie's last conversation, it seems that Archie didn't push the Captain and didn't know who did, if anyone. He may think Horatio did it--and even if he doesn't think HH did it, he realizes that the evidence is stacked against Horatio and the judges are for sure going to find someone to blame. He makes his decision to take the blame because he knows someone has to, and blaming Wellard isn't going to go anywhere as the young man is already dead. It's interesting to note that Hobbs doesn't protest Archie's declaration. That seems to imply that he might not actually know if anyone in particular did it. Also, Horatio may worry that perhaps Archie actually did it, which was why he rushed down to the holding cells to try to keep Archie from testifying. He seems to care a great deal about his comrades' "good names" and thus would never testify against them.
10) If Horatio actually DID do it, I don't see AT ALL how he possibly could have accepted his promotion and carried on without being totally eaten away by guilt, due to his totally over-introspective personality. I'm under the impression from the books that his character is given to being overly hard on himself to a fault. If he did push the Captain, wouldn't that have followed him to his grave throughout the remaining books? Someone else (on an earlier Who Pushed Him thread--much better than this one, actually! it's titled 'SPOILERS!!!') has also pointed out astutely that due to his guilt-complex-prone nature, it's possible that he is so reticent on the matter because he didn't try harder to keep the Captain from falling. It may be that he feels guilty by omission, somehow, and thus feels like he can't vehemently deny guilt (thus, his reply to Archie's point blank question: "I'll answer that in court").
So--it's still ambiguous, but given all these elements, I would argue that either a) no one pushed the Captain; he fell, or b) Wellard pushed him, but none of the officers saw this; he alone knew. I think more clues point to the former, but either way, I think it's safe to assume that Horatio didn't push the Captain.
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