Well, its a movie after all, isnt it.
But here's the reason why Malagant attacked that day:
Arthur - hurt and angry as he was - ordered all Gates to be opened for the trial. A mistake.
Malagant probably heard of this and used
it for a swift attack. He knew the attack would come as a surprise with all the knights being unprepared and unarmored. How could he know that all citizens would overcome their fear, rise up and join in the fight? How could he know that Arthur would sacrifice himself, and by doing so motivating his people to fight - unarmed as they were - craftsmen, tailors, smiths, carpenters and so forth... all without experience in battle.
Malagant took Arthur as hostage to keep his knights from starting a fight. So, in my opinion, Malagant wasnt that stupid.
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