Could Something Like This Really Happen?

Awesome movie!

I agree that it's an awesome movie (exciting, thought compelling, and well executed).

Could Something Like This Really Happen?

The short answer is NO.

There are many reasons why the plot of this film only works in a movie and not in real life. And it has mostly to do with the many embellishments the script takes with Nuclear Missile Submarine standard operating procedures. The list of inaccuracies that were built into the script is probably too long to cover, so I'll just go over four key plot points that are completely unrealistic.

1) In order to create the tension and conflict necessary between the CO and the XO (eventually leading to the mutiny), the plot establishes early on that the CO "lost" his XO due to illness (very convenient) right before they are due to set sail. Consequently, he must replace his former XO with a new one that he doesn't know.

Problem: This would never actually happen in real life. The CO always chooses his own XO (from a long list of dozens and dozens of potential candidates). For obvious reasons, this puts the CO in a position to pick someone he knows and most importantly someone he trusts. If no such candidate is currently available (highly unlikely), then the boat doesn't go off into battle! The idea that a CO of a nuclear missile boat is going to hire a guy he's never met before, and doesn't know anything about (apart from his service record) to be his EXO, the day before setting sail amidst a nuclear crisis is ABSURD! But it's necessary in order for the plot to advance.

*CGSailor and my dad (both navy) seem to be giving me a slightly different account here, so I can't back this up. The one thing we all seem to agree on is that the likelihood of a CO choosing an EX that he hardly knows and doesn't trust is very low.

2) The major dilemma of the film is the crew's inability to confirm their nuclear launch order due to "the radio" sustaining damage in a submarine battle. Additionally and simultaneously the VLF radio bouy cable is severed in the attack (very convenient) compounding the problem further. A crewman must therefore repair "the radio", and the ship must rise to periscope depth in order for the crew to know whether their launch order is authentic, or if it's been recalled.

Problem: Military warfighting aircraft and naval vessels typically operate on the principle of redundancy. There is more than one goddamn radio on a submarine! And they are going to have multiple radios of different frequency bands as well (UHF SATCOM, VHF line of sight, long range HF, low frequency bandwidth VLF and ELF radios). If VHF #1 radio is broken, go to VHF #2. If all VHF radios are down, use one of the UHF radios. If you're submerged too deep for LOS communication, use the VLF radio. If the VLF radio boey is severed use the ELF, and so on and so forth. Watching the ONE qualified radioman struggling to fix the ONE broken radio on the boat in order to prevent World War 3 was so fücking ridiculous that it was funny to me. My specialty in the military is communications and navigation by the way. 

3) An intense and dramatic moment occurs in the midst of the mutiny when the CO threatens to shoot WEPS unless he opens the missile key safe. He then realizes the futility of this act and instead threatens the life of a another sailor because WEPS is the only one who knows the combination! [insert face palm here]

Problem: In real life the way it works is that there are TWO launch keys (one for the CO, one for the XO). These keys are kept in two different safes, with two different combination locks, and NOBODY on board knows the combination to either safe. The combination is revealed only via emergency action message, along with the launch order and authentication code. So the idea that Weps alone would be the one crew member to know the combination is just silly, and factually incorrect. But again, it's a movie and it works better that way for dramatic purposes.

4) The mutiny itself! Conflict arises because the CO insists on proceeding with a nuclear launch order (we'll get to that more later), despite the fact that the XO fails to concur with his launch order. That right there should be game over!

Nothing like that has ever happened before in real life, but IF we were to assume it could, what happens next is obvious. The ship returns to port and the NCIS likely conducts an investigation (assuming anyone survives the nuclear holocaust that is). Not only is it unlikely that a seasoned naval skipper would violate standard operating procedures governing the release of nuclear weapons during time of war, but for his entire staff to go along with that violation (save two officers and a chief) strains credibility to say the least. US naval officers (particularly sub mariners) are some of the most highly educated, highly trained, highly vetted, most disciplined, and most professional men in the country. For that many to simply disregard nuclear protocol and insist on proceeding with a plan that could initiate a nuclear war merely because they respect their captain (even though he's clearly lost his mind as evidenced by the fact that he threatened to shoot Weps in the head) is once again utterly absurd! That is NOT going to happen because that is not how the navy does business. They don't hire brainless, spineless dipshïts to be in charge of nuclear weapons, period!

And now pivoting back to the nuclear launch order. At some point in the film, the crew receives a properly formatted and authenticated EAM transmission ordering them to launch their missiles. This means that we are at DEFCON 1, and the President has ordered a nuclear strike on Russia. Then near the climax of the film we learn that the bad guy conveniently surrenders (right after cracking the nuclear codes) for completely unrelated reasons, and the President just changes his mind and recalls the launch order. REALLY? 

Just think about the ridiculousness of that scenario for a moment. For one thing the release of nuclear weapons is always a LAST resort. That is something that can happen only after every other option has been exhausted. If rebels have taken over a nuclear missile facility in Russia, we would be coordinating with the official Russian representatives (assuming any were still in power) before launching a conventional attack on that facility to retake it before it could be utilized by any rogue agents. We don't need to use nuclear weapons to neutralize ONE nuclear launch site in Russia. Depending on the size and scope of the rebel force, there would be an air war (which we would easily win), before a ground assault (which combined with legitimate Russian army would be overwhelming), and a decisive victory.

There are many other factual errors and inconsistencies in the plot that lead to an entertaining, but completely unrealistic story. But those are the main four that jump out at me.

When the captain was interviewing the new XO and he said "it was a short list" was that kinda sorta a subtle insult?

It was kind of intended as a snarky joke. The Captain was reading off Hunter's file and pseudo complimented him when he said his name was at the "top" of the selection list of XO candidates. After Hunter says "thank you", the Captain then goes on the say "it was a short list", indicating that Hunter being the best available at the time isn't really saying all that much. Basically, he was just being a dick for no reason. But as I previously indicated, that whole scenario is completely unrealistic.

Edited for accuracy per CGSailor input

This artist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMPvcgejKpw

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