MovieChat Forums > Let It Ride (1989) Discussion > How much was in the pool?

How much was in the pool?

posted 8 years ago by jgroub
5 replies | jump to latest

Over at the "So how much did he end up winning?" thread, there is quite a lovely discussion of odds, payouts, and the like.

One of the sub-discussions over there is how there is no way that Trotter could have won his $612,000 (or whatever) on that last race, simply because there would never have been that much bet on that horse to begin with. Meaning that the entire pool of money bet on Hot-to-Trot was far less than $612,000. Since, in a pari-mutuel betting arrangement, the track only ever pays out what it took in (less what the track takes itself), and since the entire day's betting is something like $5 million, divided among 9 races, and divided again by other specialty bets (exacta, place, show, etc.), there just wouldn't be $612,000 in the pool of bets specifically on Hot-to-Trot to win that Trotter could have collected from.

Interesting.

But, knowing that Trotter's $68,000 bet knocked the odds down from 40-1 to 8-1, can't we work in reverse and figure out how large the pool would have had to have been in order for his bet to knock down the odds like that? Just curious.

I want the doctor to take your picture so I can look at you from inside as well.

[–] SidekickinWhiteFury 8 years ago

I used 5 million for Hollywood Park in the late 80's. The fact that it was Hialeah, means the pool would have been much less. They never say they are at Hialeah, but we see the palm trees and the Flamingos and it was filmed at Hialeah.
Fictionally, the odds were knocked down to 8-1. But in reality, it would have been 2-1 or even 1-1. Not worth the risk.

Also, when he makes the bet and we see the tote board move from 40-1 to 8-1, none of the other odds change. Every other number on the board would have gone up, because now there is so much more money in the pool and almost none of it on any other entry.

[–] jgroub 8 years ago

Yes, I read that, thank you.

I'm asking a different question. How large would the pool have to be so that a $68,000 bet would only knock the odds down from 40-1 to 8-1?

I want the doctor to take your picture so I can look at you from inside as well.

[–] SidekickinWhiteFury 8 years ago

The math does not work out correctly if you reverse the process.
He wins $544,000. Well a few other players had that bet but not many, it was 40-1.
Figuring a track takeout of 15% if there was 700,000 in the win pool (not possible)
It would return 595,000 to the winners. 51,000 to the other bettors, at 8-1 means
that 637.50 was previously bet on that horse to make the odds 40-1.
If that horse was 40-1 there was only 51,000 in the total pool before he made his bet. The numbers do not work out.
An unknown factor, is how much was bet after he made his wager, buy assuming it was close to the time the pools close, let's say it's not a significant amount.
There has to be 632,000 in the pool before he makes his bet to make the pool 700,000
in order for him to collect 544,000.
If there is 632,000 already in the pool, then there is 15,800 already bet on his entry. Then he makes the bet, and now there is 83,800 bet on his entry, which from a total pool of 595,000 (700,000- 15%) means the odds are 7-1.

[–] jgroub 8 years ago

I don't quite get it, because I don't understand how it all (parimutuel betting) works. But I get it - you're saying there's just no way for the numbers to work out to the way they were showing them to work. Thanks for explaining it. I appreciate it.

I want the doctor to take your picture so I can look at you from inside as well.

[–] 8 years ago

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