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Doolittle Raid Caused More U.S. And Chinese Losses Then It Was Worth

posted 9 years ago by Redhooks
8 replies | jump to latest

I believe if the US Navy had not mounted the Doolittle Raid, they and Chinese civilians would have been better off in the long run. After the raid, the Japanese Army launched an offensive into the interior of China to eliminate the airfields that the US bombers were supposed to land at. It has been estimated that up to 200,000 Chinese civilians were killed during this offensive that probably would not have happened without the raid taking place.

Without needing to provide cover for the Hornet while its flight deck was full of B-25's, the Enterprise could have joined the Lexington when she went down to the South Pacific to reinforce the Yorktown. This would have given the US a 3 to 2 edge in fleet carriers at the Battle of the Coral Sea and might have prevented the Lexington from being sunk.

In the mean time, the Hornet could have used the two to three weeks it took for the Raid to better train her air group. The dive bomber squadrons had only started to be equiped with the SBD when they got to San Diego in March, 1942. A pilot in one of those squadrons had wrote on the Midway Roundtable forum site that the new pilots in the both squadrons did not get enough training in dive bombing techniques with their new SBDs. Had the Hornet not left the West Coast until late April or early May, VT-8 could have been equiped with the new TBF Avengers instead of the outdated TBDs.

Finally, if Yamamoto had gone through with the Midway campaign, the US might have had 4 fleet carriers to oppose the Japanese instead of just 3. The air groups on 3 of the carriers having already been in combat which may have given the US a more decisive first strike on the Japanese carrier force.

Discuss?

Redhooks

"You don't get something for nothing, you don't get freedom for free." Neil Peart

[–] Vulcans_Rule 9 years ago

I like your analysis. The raid was more for morale than military benefit, although it did lightly damage one Japanese carrier.

 Live long and prosper.

[–] dln1700 9 years ago

It was a huge morale boost for America but an even bigger shock for Japan. The raid showed Japan was not out of reach of American bombers so they decided to retain large numbers of fighters and anti-aircraft guns back home to fend off further bombing raids Japan believed were coming that would have otherwise been used in the Pacific area. Had these aircraft gone to the Pacific it's quite possible that not only would there have been more US losses as a result but more Australian, Dutch, British and New Zealand losses as well.

Remember, it wasn't just the US fighting in the Pacific war so it is unfair to say this raid caused more US losses than it was worth when in fact it may have saved lives.

[–] murad23 9 years ago

the dolittle raid is what drove the Japanese to completely change their war plan from close in defense (their docrtine) to a perimeter thousands of miles east. This led to midway which was the major defeat from which Japan never could recover

And it ultimately saved millions of Chinese lives which would have been lost, by shortening the ear by a few years. Even Chinese historians agree on this. hundreds of thousands of Chinese were starving to death each month at the end of the war from the Japanese occupation

As far as the Japanese offensive into the interior, it was planed and in fact UNDERWEIGH before the dolittle raid. There were some reprisals in the thousands, but Japan had been killing tens of thousands of civilians in any/every such advance into new territory.

[–] KobiyashiMauru 9 years ago

Two Words, Mushroom Cloud. The Dolittle raids were getting the Japs to get their bomb shelters ready. Not that it would do them any good. Once the B-29's had air superiority over Japan it was just a matter of time. So good job General Dolittle and Tojo looked good in that rope necktie that Harry Truman gave him didn't he? 

[–] jwiles1 9 years ago

If memory serves, it was the Doolittle raid that caused the Japanese to approve the Midway operation. Since Midway turned out so well for us, its difficult to see how the absence of the raid would have been better for the US Navy. Definitely might have been better for the Chinese civilians though.

[–] Redhooks 9 years ago

Well it is my opinion that Yamamoto would have bullied the Naval General Staff to approve his Midway operation or he would have threatened to resign regardless of the raid. A number of authors of books about Midway have also made such statements in the book, Refighting the Pacific War.

The real question though is IF there was no Doolittle Raid and TF 16 (or just the Enterprise) was sent instead to the Coral Sea, how would that battle have ended up? Would the sinking of one or both Japanese fleet carriers involved at the Coral Sea have changed Yamamoto's plan for Midway or not. Would the planning be more cautious based on the US Navy showing it was willingness to fight the Japanese at sea?

Redhooks

"You don't get something for nothing, you don't get freedom for free." Neil Peart

[–] jwiles1 9 years ago

IMO, without the Doolittle raid, the Midway operation would have been more difficult to get approval for. Even it was approved, it might have been delayed longer. Although fwiw, a delay might have had an positive impact on both sides, as the Japanese might have been able to rest and refit and perhaps even add the Shokaku/Zuikaku to the Midway operation whilethe Americans would have been able to get the Hornet's aircrew up to speed, as well as add the Saratoga, and perhaps the Wasp and the USS North Carolina (providing significant additional AA protection).

Its hard to determine what the impact would be had the Enterprise went to Coral Sea. The fortunes of war can be fickle. Certain the odds would favor the US winning a bigger victory. But perhaps someone gets lucky and puts a Torpedo or a bomb into Enterprise and she misses Midway. Irt its impact on Japanese thinking, it could make them more cautious, or it could make them understand just how much they need to take out the US carriers. Or it could have no impact on their thinking. That is possible, since the sinking of the Shoho and the damage to the Shokaku didn't seem to impact their timelines or strategy.

[–] jonathanrspalding 7 years ago

I like your analysis, but I disagree with one point. Though not an intended result the mission kind of goaded the Japanese attack and to overextend themselves at Midway. If they had been content to play defense it would have been tough for us in 42 and 43. Can you imagine the solomons if the Japanese had all their carriers.