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OT: Oscar Race is go


The National Board of Review Awards for 2017 were just announced kickstarting the Oscar-picking season. Vulture.com has a summary:
http://www.vulture.com/2017/11/the-post-wins-big-at-the-national-board-of-review-awards.html
My summary of their summary: Spielberg's The Post triumphs - Best Film, Actor for Hanks and Actress for Streep. Other top awards get shared out (possibly as a constitutional matter, like Cannes): Director to Greta Gerwig for Ladybird, Writing awards to The Disaster Artist and PTA's Phantom Thread.

Top 10 film list (excluding The Post):
Baby Driver
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Downsizing
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
Logan
Phantom Thread

Weirdest 'sharing of the spoils': Greta Gerwig gets Best Director for her debut Ladybird, but Jordan Peele gets Best Directorial Debut for Get Out.

As Vulture notes, the NBR hasn't been much of a predictor of actual Oscar success in recent years... still, the odds that this is a Dunkirk/Nolan-career award year just went down considerably I'd say. Note that I'm still a little skeptical about The Post's chances. I didn't like Hanks in the trailer (I can't get Jason Robards as Ben Bradlee out of my head, sorry!) and the Acad. gave the top awards to another newspaper tale, Spotlight, only two years ago, and I dare say that S's story has more inherent gravitas than The Pentagon Papers. But I could be surprised!

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The NYFCC echoed the NBR in 2 categories: BSA for Dafoe and screenplay for Phantom Thread, so these two have real Oscar momentum. Ladybird won BP, but FLorida Project PD. And CHalamet won BA, there's no breakthrough award. Nothing for The Post.

Interesting how these days critics get to see everything before December. I recall when these awards were delayed until after Xmas because films like The Exorcist and Godfather II weren't completed until days before their late December releases.

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Nothing for The Post.

Or Dunkirk... top wins for Ladybird (Film, Actress) and Florida Project (Director, BSActor). Single key awards for Call Me By Your Name and Phantom Thread. That feels like the small/indie/art-film pack set for the season and *maybe* curtains for Nolan and Spiel.

Some films *are* still unseen by anyone, e.g., Ridley Scott's All The Money In The World which had to be reshot with Plummer replacing Spacey, but also the new (rumored to be pretty good/has a pretty good young writer/director) Star Wars. There was definitely a year recently (2014?) when early-December groups were shocked by a whole bunch of important late-breaking films including American Sniper. Really these groups *should* learn to wait, but they've now semi-officially grabbed this early bird, trend-setting slot, so I guess they've decided just to live with being potentially embarrassed by a late-breaking Kane or Godfather Part 2.

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Much as in another post I refer to how Oscar bait movies get moved up in release to the fall, there certainly have been some "last minute Oscar dominators."

Two of them were by Clint Eastwood: Million Dollar Baby came in at the very end of 2004 and scuttled frontrunner "Sideways." And indeed, American Sniper came in at the very end to dominate box office...but it failed to win over the politics of Hollywood.

Reversibly, Eastwood released his Oscar bait "Unforgiven" in the summer of 1992, and everybody waited for something better to show up in the fall or early winter. Didn't happen. Unforgiven got the Best Picture prize.

Back in 1986, I recall how Hannah and Her Sisters(a March release) held on for the entire year as the probable Best Picture winner -- until Platoon showed up at the very end of the year and took the prize.

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Interesting how these days critics get to see everything before December. I recall when these awards were delayed until after Xmas because films like The Exorcist and Godfather II weren't completed until days before their late December releases.

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Part of what happened is the Oscar ceremony was moved up, to February, from April. The move to February was to accomodate February being a "sweeps month" when broadcast ratings are measured. (November is the other sweeps month, and hey, "on topic," the local LA TV showings of Psycho back in the day were shown in November 1967 and then just a few months later in February 1968.)

With the ceremony moved up two months, Oscar movies were moved up for screenings from December to October and November. (Though not for release; we still get a handful of movies that play only in LA and NYC in December for Oscar consideration, and then go wide in January.)

The idea of movies being completed "days before their release" always sort of fascinated me. A movie like The Exorcist or Godfather II will be minted a classic that will stand the test of time and yet, it came into release fruition "with the film stock still wet."

I suppose modern technology and lead time allows for fewer movies to be "cut up to the release date."

I recall one that barely made its release date: the original Star Trek the Movie(1979.) You could TELL it needed more editing than time allowed -- there was this INTERMINABLE sequence of Kirk floating around the Enterprise and just looking at it in awe. It could have used a few minutes out. And the rest of the movie ran slow, too.

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Ah, yes - Star Trek - The Motion(less) Picture

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Ah, yes - Star Trek - The Motion(less) Picture

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Ha.

It seems funny to have to note here that for fans of the original 1960's Star Trek series, it was a long, long wait to get a "reunion movie." 10 years. 1969 to 1979. I'm reminded of the ten years that the "Hitchcock Five" were out of circulation. Nowadays, Rear Window and Vertigo and The Trouble With Harry and The Man Who Knew Too Much '56 and Rope are all on quite a bit on the classic channels. But for ten years, we didn't have them, back in the 70's.

And for ten years, we didn't have any Star Trek to conjure with except a TV cartoon version.

So when they finally got Kirk, Spock, Doc and the rest are cast, it was a big deal. (It was Star Wars of 1977 that triggered the greenlight -- of which William Shatner ungraciously said in an interview, "You know we can do better than that was." Wrong, Bill.)

Anyway, a bunch of build-up, huge lines for opening weekend and...dullsville.

Star Trek the Motion Picture actually killed off a major directorial career: Robert Wise's. He had been the big guy in the 60's -- West Side Story, The Haunting, The Sound of Music, The Sand Pebbles. But the back-to-back special effects dullards The Hindenberg and Star Trek proved old Bob "too old for the game."

Three years later, younger folks made the much peppier(and sadder) "Wrath of Khan" and we've been Star Trekked to death ever since: Classic Trek movies, the Patrick Stewart TV show, the Patrick Stewart movies(one WITH William Shatner, one WITH Leonard Nimoy) and now the Star Trek reboots with Chris Pine.

And get this: QT himself has come up with a Star Trek idea for JJ Abrams which will be "sent out to a story conference" and MAYBE directed by QT himself:

Spock: You know, Kirk, on this one planet, they don't call a Quarter Pounder a Quarter Pounder. You know why?
Kirk: No.
Spock: The metric system. They don't know what a quarter pounder is. They call it a Royale with Cheese.

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Golden Globe Noms are out.... separate lists for comedy and drama at both Picture and Lead Actor/Actress makes summary hard. Director and Supporting Noms and Writing feel correspondingly more telling:

BEST DIRECTOR
Steven Spielberg "The Post"
Ridley Scott "All the Money in the World" [didn't get a Picture nom]
Christopher Nolan "Dunkirk"
Martin McDonagh "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Guillermo del Toro "The Shape of Water"

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Armie Hammer "Call Me By Your Name"
Richard Jenkins "The Shape of Water"
Christopher Plummer "All the Money in the World"
Sam Rockwell "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Willem Dafoe "The Florida Project" [didn't get a Picture nom]

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
Hong Chau "Downsizing" [didn't get a Picture nom]
Laurie Metcalf "Lady Bird"
Octavia Spencer "The Shape of Water"
Allison Janney "I, Tonya"
Mary J. Blige "Mudbound" [didn't get a Picture nom]

BEST SCREENPLAY - MOTION PICTURE
Josh Singer and Liz Hannah "The Post"
Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor "The Shape of Water"
Martin McDonagh "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Greta Gerwig "Lady Bird"
Aaron Sorkin "Molly's Game" [didn't get a Picture nom]

So, a good day for The Post, Dunkirk, Shape of Water, 3 Billboards.

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Feud got some love in the TV awards: The show+Lange and Sarandon both for leads. Good.

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Ah, The Golden Globes...

...the voters are evidently "nobodies" but they pick with more elegance than the People's Choice voters.

And thanks to the Drama ....Comedy/Musical categories, a few people and movies get to win something even if they don't win Oscars later.

The list reveals a few more "frontrunners":

The Shape of Water: "ET with sex in it" -- except the alien creature is more like The Creature from the Black Lagoon. It looks sweetly old-fashioned in a bad guys versus the good guys way, with Sally Hawkins' adorable cutie-pie face driving the emotion of the story(and Richard Jenkins first GG nom -- is that the same with Oscar?) Michael Shannon is as evil a villain as you can get(he's always reminded me of Joseph Cotton with a real bad hangover). The director, Guillermo del Toro...has spent so many good sacrificial years talking up Hitchocck on DVD documentaries that I'm glad to see him getting recognized on his own.

I, Tonya: Margot Robbie IS Tonya Harding...and does some of the skating herself. Its a down and dirty and funny...and sad..tale of working class angst and I feel its a potential Olympic sleeper hit. Robbie is among those(Sally is another) who could keep Streep in the nominated only category.

Hong Chau in Downsizing -- I love's me some Alexander Payne so I feel that I'm going to love Downsizing however it turns out. It lacks the hype and heat of Payne's wonderful "Sideways," but time marches on. I'm EXPECTING to love this movie.

And how fascinating: Chris Plummer draws a nom for a role he filmed three weeks ago. That's "one for the ages" done quick. But there's a gimmick: its his replacement of Spacey in All the Money in the World. He -- and Ridley Scott -- are probably being rewarded for their speedy saving of the day as anything else.

There's other interesting stuff on the list, but that's all I got right now.

Except: Get Out...as a COMEDY? See...that's how the Golden Globes rig the deck a little for the underdog...

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And how fascinating: Chris Plummer draws a nom for a role he filmed three weeks ago. That's "one for the ages" done quick. But there's a gimmick: its his replacement of Spacey in All the Money in the World. He -- and Ridley Scott -- are probably being rewarded for their speedy saving of the day as anything else.
Interesting question: Had the HFPA even *seen* ATMITW before making these reward-for-saving-the-day noms?
Answer: According to this link -
https://screenrant.com/all-money-world-reshot-golden-globes-screener
they only got to see a specially-provided rough cut.

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Interesting question: Had the HFPA even *seen* ATMITW before making these reward-for-saving-the-day noms?
Answer: According to this link -
https://screenrant.com/all-money-world-reshot-golden-globes-screener
they only got to see a specially-provided rough cut.

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Ha. Well, the Golden Globes voters are rather corrupt, I've read.

But for that matter, how many Oscar voters really see ALL the nominated films and performances, anyway in any case? Often they vote for what they've heard is the right choice, or they vote AGAINST enemies, etc.

I knew an Academy member who said he gave his ballot every year to his hair stylist...because the stylist DID see all the movies. The Academy member did not. He felt the stylist had the more legitimate opinion. He'd turn in his ballot as filled out by his stylist.

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On the "rough cut" thing:

In film criticism circles, Pauline Kael created an outrage in 1975 when she turned in a weeks-ahead of release rave of Altman's "Nashville" on the basis of a very long rough cut. What Kael reviewed is not what was released. I think NYC critic Vincent Canby called "foul," writing --"whats to stop a critic from reviewing RUSHES, or the original script before a frame is shot."

In other words, "when is a movie a movie?"

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Get Out...as a COMEDY? See...that's how the Golden Globes rig the deck a little for the underdog
There was that whole comedic side of the movie with the TSA-agent friend.... His saving the day at the end was also the one big departure from GO's '70s models, which all had downer endings... One can try to argue that the comic relief showing up at the end rather than having the cops arrive and kill the black hero (the real Night of the Living Stepford Wives ending) is enough to flip the film to a comedy.

Relatedly by movie-logic: I thought the Dem Alabama Senator candidate Doug Jones shared his name with a Robocop villain, but that was 'Dick Jones'. Nothing to see here!

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There was that whole comedic side of the movie with the TSA-agent friend.... His saving the day at the end was also the one big departure from GO's '70s models, which all had downer endings... One can try to argue that the comic relief showing up at the end rather than having the cops arrive and kill the black hero (the real Night of the Living Stepford Wives ending) is enough to flip the film to a comedy.

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I have read that originally, Get Out DID end with the downer ending...real cops, the hero is jailed for killing those white people...I don't know if that ending was filmed, but I prefer the funny/happy one (and the TSA buddy is based on Eddie Murphy's old routine about how in a horror movie about a haunted house, black folks would just "get out the house" if they found out it was haunted. The white "Amityville" folks stick around.)

The truth is that the Golden Globes rather brilliantly created one category for Drama and one category marked "Comedy/Musical" which allows for more nominations and wins than the Oscars do. Simply put, two Best Actors and two Best Actresses and two Best Pictures come out of the Golden Globes...and then the Oscars simply picks the "more serious performance or movie" to win at the Oscars.

Thus John Travolta won a Golden Globe for Get Shorty and Leo DiCaprio won a Golden Globe for Wolf of Wall Street...but Oscar was not in the cards.

I still don't quite think Get Out qualifies as pure comedy -- its pretty grim what happens to the black characters in the film, and payback violence is visited on the white characters -- but: if it can get some wins here that it likely WON'T get at the Oscars...that's a good thing.

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The goofiest GG comedy/drama classification was in 1956 when Around the World in 80 Days was nominated for Best Picture Drama while Cantinflas was nominated for Best Actor in a comedy! On one level, it sort of made sense, the film was about a seirous effort to circle the globe and beat the clock,while Cantinflas's role was pure Chaplinesque slapstick. But still.....

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The goofiest GG comedy/drama classification was in 1956 when Around the World in 80 Days was nominated for Best Picture Drama while Cantinflas was nominated for Best Actor in a comedy! On one level, it sort of made sense, the film was about a seirous effort to circle the globe and beat the clock,while Cantinflas's role was pure Chaplinesque slapstick. But still.....

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It makes sense but it doesn't, right? Of course, the Golden Globes rather paints itself into a corner with all those categories.

Which reminds me: Hitchcock was decidedly helped by the two different categories of Golden Globe in 1972:

Frenzy ended up with nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay, and Best Score..all in the "Drama" category. You see, Cabaret -- a big Oscar favorite -- got pulled over into the "Best Musical/Comedy" categories -- and that cleared the way for Frenzy on the drama side. Frenzy won nothing, however -- I think The Godfather cleaned up, natch.

(I recall Merv Griffin in 1973 regaling Hitchcock on the TV stage of Griffin's talk show, with word of those four GG noms...Frenzy had been out of release for months but Hitchcock happily showed up to bask in "awards glory." Alas, Frenzy won none of its GG noms, and was shutout entirely for Oscar noms -- too " anti-feminist," I guess, though it seemed quite on the side of women, to me. Note here again how, with the GG noms, Frenzy just kept on mattering past its summer 1972 release.)

In 1976, Barbara Harris got a GG nomination for "Family Plot" -- in the Comedy/Musical category. Most fitting. She WAS funny, and so, for much of the time, was "Family Plot"(while remaining a serious thriller, too. Something Hitchcock pulled off a LOT.)

And way back in 1960, Janet Leigh actually WON the GG for Psycho. Supporting Actress, beating Shirley Jones in Elmer Gantry..who would beat Leigh for Oscar.

Sometimes...the GGs got it more right than the Oscars.

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Top 10 film list (excluding The Post):
Baby Driver

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That's out of the running now.

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Call Me by Your Name

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Of interest, given the Spacey situation. I believe this is a gay love story where one fellow is somewhat older than the other, who is grazing teenhood. Should that matter? Not to me. But to somebody maybe.

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The Disaster Artist

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I have not heard of this.

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Downsizing

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Alexander Payne -- always a winner with me. Funny: Payne was originally going to do this right after Sideways, using Paul Giamatti. Mr. Giamatti has faded since, so we get the ubiquitous Matt Damon(looking for a hit after the big flop of Suburbicon, for which Damon put on considerable weight which seems to be off. Lucky bastard.)

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Dunkirk

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Saw it. Very much a sensory experience, a bit light on the human drama. Could this be "the big technical winner."

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The Florida Project

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I think this looks to be the biggest deal for Willem Dafoe. "He's due." And he plays a fairly nice guy here.

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Get Out

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Saw it. The premise was cool and substantive about race relations, though it reminded me of a few other movies, notably The Stepford Wives.

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Lady Bird

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Seems to be the sleeper frontrunner. I note that the young star of the film is hosting SNL -- watch SNL pick up some "Oscar-bait hosts" twixt now and February. J-Law hosted. Chris Walz hosted.

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Logan

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Interesting. A comic book movie makes good -- via grim brutality and bleakness.
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Phantom Thread

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Mr. Day Lewis says goodbye. Will he blot out Wiliem Dafoe's main chance?

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Weirdest 'sharing of the spoils': Greta Gerwig gets Best Director for her debut Ladybird, but Jordan Peele gets Best Directorial Debut for Get Out.

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Has not Gerwig directed before?

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Has not Gerwig directed before?

I thought not, but it turns out that she co-directed a mumble-core film (which nobody saw) back in 2008. Ladybird is her first solo-direct. That's enough to get the NBR off the hook for an error I suppose.

I have to say that these directorial debuts (or near debuts) getting so much love does strike me as a little over-eager. Get Out was good fun but very derivative as you mention. And while Ladybird sounds like exactly my sort of thing, it sounds very similar to a whole range of films (many of which Gerwig was in) directed by Noah Baumbach that didn't get big noms or awards. Both Peele and Gerwig should be able to do a lot better than these films if they've really got the goods... So much attention now for far from truly ground-breaking stuff feels unhealthy.

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As Vulture notes, the NBR hasn't been much of a predictor of actual Oscar success in recent years...

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I do believe NBR's Best Director choice in 1969 was...Alfred Hitchcock. For Topaz.

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still, the odds that this is a Dunkirk/Nolan-career award year just went down considerably I'd say. Note that I'm still a little skeptical about The Post's chances. I didn't like Hanks in the trailer (I can't get Jason Robards as Ben Bradlee out of my head, sorry!) and the Acad. gave the top awards to another newspaper tale, Spotlight, only two years ago, and I dare say that S's story has more inherent gravitas than The Pentagon Papers. But I could be surprised!

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Your Robards comment is where I am on The Post. If you are a certain age, Robards (who looked a LOT like Bradlee) WAS Bradlee, the actor and the real man rather merged. So the problem is: Tom Hanks doesn't look like Jason Robards.

But audiences younger than me won't make the comparison.

I have a few beefs with The Post. First of all "Steven Spielberg directs Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks" seems almost most too perfectly prestigious for words. It is a Summit of the Greats -- except two of them (SS and Hanks) aren't so great anymore, and Streep -- I dunno -- when she got her AFI Life Achievement award she said "Even I think I'm great!" It was meant as a joke but I felt she really believed it. Folks just seem to bask in her talent as an impressionist. She won for playing Thatcher a few years back and (to coin my phrase again) did anybody SEE that movie? And here she is doing Katherine Graham.



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My other beef with The Post is that the trailer seems to be playing up Graham and Bradlee as being in great danger going up against Nixon: "You could end up in prison!" As it turned out, Nixon was pretty easily taken out, well within two years of a landslide victory election -- Presidents come and go, but newspapers go on forever(well, back then, they did, and its not politicians taking them out now --its the internet and ad revenue loss, even as papers try to print ON the internet.)

I'll see The Post for the 1971 nostalgia factor(its one of my personal favorite years), and for a brush-up on The Pentagon Papers. About which, the equal opportunity trailer suggests that the Papers would indict the lies of Presidents "going back 30 years." So they're not just after Nixon. They're after LBJ, JFK, Ike, Harry Truman and FDR, too, evidently.

BTW, I think this is the umpteenth Spielberg movie starring Tom Hanks. They're like The Prestige Twins. Saving Private Ryan. Catch Me If You Can. The Terminal(awful.) Bridge of Spies(very good). The Post. Did I miss anything?

Spielberg tried only two with Tom Cruise: Minority Report(OK, with an LA Confidential ripoff scene) and War of the Worlds(great in the doomsday action, sketchy everywhere else.) And then Mr. Cruise jumped on a couch and Spielberg never worked with him again.




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LA Critics chime in:
BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name
Runner-up: The Florida Project

BEST DIRECTOR
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water and Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (tie)

BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Runner-up: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Runner-up: James Franco, The Disaster Artist

BEST SCREENPLAY
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Runner-up: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Runner-up: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Runner-up: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Again, no Dunkirk/Nolan love, no The Post. Call Me By Your Name strengthens and Del Toro's Shape of Water surges into contention for the biggest awards.

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Sight and Sound does yearly lists these days, and this year they've completely lost their marbles:
http://www.slashfilm.com/sight-and-sound-twin-peaks

1. Get Out, dir: Jordan Peele
2. Twin Peaks: The Return, dirs: Mark Frost, David Lynch
3. Call Me by Your Name, dir: Luca Guadagnino
4. Zama, dir: Lucrecia Martel
5. Western, dir: Valeska Grisebach
6. Faces Places, dir: Agnes Varda, JR
7. Good Time, dirs: Ben and Josh Safdie
8. Loveless, dir: Andrey Zvyagintsev
9. Dunkirk, dir: Christopher Nolan
10. The Florida Project, dir: Sean Baker

they go on to a top 25 that includes 2016 Oscar-contenders so isn't quite as relevant.

I've yet to see a lot of the top 10 but those I have seen (Get Out, Twin Peaks, Good Time, Dunkirk) aren't *amazing* (or, as in TP's case, are so only intermittently).

In vaguely related news, Jordan Peele, fresh off his Get Out success is apparently being given the keys (by Warners? Universal?) to The Twilight Zone to make out of it whatever TV shows and movies he wants. Could work.

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The AFI chimes in (about US films and TV):

AFI Movies of the Year-
The Big Sick
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman

AFI TV Programs of the Year-
Big Little Lies
The Crown
Feud: Bette and Joan
Game of Thrones
The Good Place
The Handmaid's Tale
Insecure
Master of None
Stranger Things 2
This is Us

AFI Special Award-
The Vietnam War

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Wonder Woman? Really? Am pleased to see Feud get a nod - it's not made many end of year lists but its highs (esp. the Oscars ep.) were very high. Not sure that Stranger Things and Game of Thrones belong; they're handsomely mounted fun/popcorn stuff but that's about all.

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Wonder Woman? Really?

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Actually, as the year near its end,Wonder Woman is in the running for my personal favorite of the year, versus:

Baby Driver
Logan Lucky

...keeping in mind that to make my "personal" list, there has to be some sort of high entertainment value, generally using William Friedkin's standard -- I laugh, I scream, or I cry. Which is why past favorites of the year of mine include Animal House, Psycho, and Terms of Endearment.

Alas, the 2010s simply aren't delivering classic entertainment. Subtracting out two QT movies and one Scorsese, I've had to go with films like John Wick and The Magnificent Seven(both of which I love, but neither of which feels consequential.)

My willingness to move Wonder Woman into the top slot came with my late-breaking realization that the beauteous Gal Gadot has a kind of "instant star quality" that informs Wonder Woman not just as a matter of beauty(of which she has plenty) but of CHARACTER: her Wonder Woman is wonderfully pure of heart and tough of battle readiness. And she has romantic sex with an "earthling," ala Superman. Wonder Woman is a full blooded, three-dimensional woman, and I'm kind of sweet on Gadot like I've been on other female stars that preceded her. And the movie has a sequence that MATTERS in WW's run across "No Man's Land"(so easily symbolic.)

As a matter of 2017's "theme," Wonder Woman proves just the character to arrive in the year of Women Breaking the Silence. Gadot herself has said that she won't make the Wonder Woman sequel unless Bad Guy Brett Ratner is taken off the project.

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Am pleased to see Feud get a nod - it's not made many end of year lists but its highs (esp. the Oscars ep.) were very high.

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As 2017 closes down, I'm reminded how nice it was to start the year(in March) with that great trip down Hollywood memory lane, from perhaps my favorite years OF Hollywood's existence. It was everything that "Hitchcock" was NOT.

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The AFI List:

The Big Sick
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman

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I would expect that the 2017 Best Picture, Actor, Actress, and Supporting roles are among that list of films. It is pretty comprehensive.

Indeed, it occurs to me that Gal Gadot COULD get a nomination for Wonder Woman(after all she anchors that movie and steals "Justice League") and that WW could be "the comic book movie that gets Oscar notice" this year.

As for the rest? Seems to me The Post is the frontrunner for Picture: the subject matter, and the Summit of Three(Spielberg, Streep, Hanks) make it the "non-indie Big One" of the year. (I'm talking Oscar here, they go for "Home Town Studio Stuff.") Streep surely gets a Best Actress nom(some sort of record) but can they really give her the award again so soon? (Maybe yes, if only to spite Trump's "she's overrated" comment.)

Get Out has its partisans. I just remembered the movie it reminds me of: Anthony Perkins' "Lucky Stiff," in which a beautiful woman brings an obese man home to her family -- because they want to eat him. Race was plugged into that formula and profundity emerged.

Call Me By Your Name is a potential Brokeback Mountain -- said to be a beautifully written , acted and photographed film of gay romance(or near romance?) that Hollywood would usually want to back. Except there is the issue of the youth of one of the potential lovers. Could be a reason to make a STAND FOR young love, of any sexual persuasion.

The Florida Project has raves , and if it is Willem Dafoe's year, it looks like Supporting Actor is where he'll get it.

Laurie Metcalf may be the only award-worthy element (Supporting) in Lady Bird (I speak from experience. I've seen it. More later.)

Dunkirk could get all the technical awards.

The Shape of Water and that Billboards movie may have Best Actresses in them.


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Are there front runners for Best Actor and Best Actress?

Well, Streep as Katherine Graham in The Post, but again -- she's got a lot of wins. So probably some other woman will get the nod.

Hanks as Ben Bradlee? It won Jason Robards the Best Supporting award -- I figure a nomination for Hanks playing Bradlee now, and thus "Ben Bradlee"(a real man) gets some Oscar trivia history. Question: Hanks for Best Actor, or Best Supporting Actor to Streep?(That could be embarrassing.)

Daniel Day Lewis promises us that his role in that Thread movie is his last. Doesn't seem a lock for Oscar.

I figure ultimately 2017 will be like the last few years where fairly low-key actors(like Brie Larson or the guy who played Stephen Hawking) in fairly obscure films win Actor and Actress. There's a controversy brewing: a petition to stop last year's Best Actor(Casey Affleck) from giving out the Best Actress award for 2017. He settled some sex harrassment suits.

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SPOILERS for Lady Bird

I saw Lady Bird.

Better yet, I saw it on a Saturday afternoon last week and that evening watched a Saturday Night Live hosted by its young star -- Sairose Ronan -- with a cameo in one filmed sketch by writer-director Greta Gerwig.

Seeing Ronan in the movie with a "pure" American accent that afternoon and then seeing her host SNL in her "native Irish brogue" reaffirmed that she will get nominated for Best Actress. Maybe even win. And Laurie Metcalf hits all the right overly-loving, overly-combative Neurotic Mother buttons and draws tears so probably a lock for Best Supporting Actress.

My beef with Lady Bird is: its just too slight, sometimes trite. It backs up a theory of mine: sometimes an indie film is just a TV movie in disguise. Change the studio backing and budget, and you've got an old Molly Ringwald film.

I'll zoom in to this plot point: Ronan's young rebel Lady Bird(a name she's given herself) has a best friend who is nerdy, math-brainy, and overweight. And at some point in the story, "just like that," Lady Bird dumps her best friend in favor of a gorgeous, vapid rich girl with whom Lady Bird thinks she wants to be friends. And of course, as the film goes on, Lady Bird sees the error of her ways, dumps the rich girl, and saves the rotund best friend from a lonely night and takes her to the prom instead of going with a vapid rich boy.

Isn't that an AfterSchool Special plot? I know I've seen it before, countless times.

Occasionally, Lady Bird is better than that -- an insightful line here, a nice scene there(as when the out-of-work middle aged father learns that he has interviewed for the same job as his young son) -- but not much. I watched Lady Bird wondering: "What's the big deal about THIS movie, and THIS writer-director?"



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One selling point of Lady Bird: it was filmed on location in Gerwig's hometown of Sacramento, California(its a disguised version of her own life, that's OK) and I always like to see some "little known place" on film. I have a passing familiarity with Sacramento -- some friends, some family live there. And it was cute to see some landmarks(like the State Capitol Building, a major bridge, some streets).

Sacramento is 100 miles inland from San Francisco, and Hitchcock rather wrongly named it as being near the locale of: Psycho. He told The New York Times in 1959, "Its about a small motel near Sacramento, in Northern California." Years later, he got more specific: "Its near a place called Redding, California." I guess he figured the New York Times readership would know the name Sacramento(the state capitol) but not Redding. Redding is about 170 miles north or Sacramento, much more rural area.

Which zooms me over to: a 2005 movie called The Ice Harvest, which is so good I'm gonna give it its own post. I watched it again the other night and was reminded that while that movie was SET in Wichita, Kansas, it turns out that it was filmed near Chicago. Which bugged me, because the first time I saw it, I thought: "Hey, so that's what Wichita Kansas, looks like."

Wrong. The Ice Harvest faked Wichita. Lady Bird gives us the real Sacramento.

Its rather how The Sopranos never failed to give us the REAL New Jersey. Makes a difference.

Anyway, I assume Oscar noms for Actress, Supporting Actress, and perhaps writer-director for Lady Bird.

But I thought it was much ado about nothing. I've seen that teenage girl coming of age show before.

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I've now had reason to read some Oscar prognostications and it looks like Gary Oldman may be a frontrunner for "disappearing" into Winston Churchill.

Its funny...everybody and his brother seems to have played Churchill it seems. One quite recently, Brian Cox , I believe(he played Hannibal Lecter before Hopkins got the part.) Albert Finney has played him.

Even Rod "The Birds" Taylor has played him -- in his last screen role. For QT. Inglorious Basterds.

But it looks like Oldman is playing him in a really good historical movie(we don't count Basterds there.)

So we could have Oscar again saluting Impressionists(Streep, Oldman.)

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My beef with Lady Bird is: its just too slight, sometimes trite. It backs up a theory of mine: sometimes an indie film is just a TV movie in disguise. Change the studio backing and budget, and you've got an old Molly Ringwald film.
I've seen Lady Bird now, and share your basic response to it ecarle. Pleasant enough but inferior to any number of similar indie faves from Ghost World through Fish Tank to Gerwig-starrers (and written-bys) like Frances Ha - where there's a 'visit home to see family in Sacramento' scene which alone is both funnier and more cinematic and more biting than any scene in LB - to things like Diary of a Teenage Girl. It's funny how a mixture of luck and politics can in one year lift a film and personality into awards-contention when greater antecedents were ignored previously.

I was a bit shocked by LB's lack of *any* specifically visual ideas. I'm not asking for Gerwig to be Wes Anderson or Lynne Ramsay, but the lack of evident visual strategy or significant shot-making really does raise the damning 'Is this TV?' question.

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I have now seen Call Me By Your Name, and can report that it was, for me, definitely good not great. While the film has a strong sense of place, good music, and the occasional great visual idea (esp. its final shot, which is an all-timer) its lack of any real incidents combined with its lack of any interesting dialogue (mumbly lead Timothee Callumet who mumbled through Lady Bird as broody rich kid Kyle too didn't help) made it weak sauce as far as I was concerned. There was plenty I didn't quite get though so maybe the problem's all mine. E.g., The film *tells* us that the first gay summer love story we witness is a rare, super-duper connection that on-lookers can only envy, but the film doesn't really *show* us that. Rather we just see that the couple is ideally beautiful and in a certain sense ideally situated, family-wise, landscape-wise, money-wise... but beyond that the relationship felt very blank to me - neither party really interests us so we don't really grasp why they should find each other so compelling in a way that would impress others. I also didn't really feel the force of the titular lovers' game where each addresses the other with the speaker's name - we needed some snappy Annie Hall-type dialogue or some voiceover maybe to help us understand what the lovers get out of this. E.g.2. The film takes a *long* time (well over 1/2 the film) to get the lovers together...we assume that's because the mid-20s guy has perfectly normal concerns about dating a 17 year old high school kid (no matter how precocious - I remember HS feeling a *hell* of a long time ago by the time I was in grad school!), esp. one who's his boss's son, but literally *no* actual discussion of these sorts of reasons occurs! What? E.g.3. Good use is made of Psych Furs classic 'Love My Way'. But it gets played twice meaningfully and I *think* that 2nd time it's supposed to point to gaps of age etc. opening up between the lovers but there's no real dialogue to guide our interpretation so who knows. We miss the thumping climax of the track each time too, which feels like a crime, but maybe that's the point. The film's not well-focused enough to allow us to decide, however, which I hold against it frankly. E.g. 4. Michael Stuhlberg (the teen's father) has a semi-big speech near the end of the film that raises more questions than it answers and is borderline stupid and offensive in parts. I preferred Tracey Letts' somewhat similar late-film paternal intervention in LB.

In sum, I don't see quite what the fuss is about CMBYN or Callumet.

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I fear you will be carrying much of the "Oscar movie load" by yourself this year, swanstep though,as always, I enjoy reading you, and as a matter of some irony, i DID see Lady Bird for "other reasons" than its Oscar cred.

"Definitely good not great" seems to me to be an indictment of many of the Oscar films of recent years. I won't do my "nobody watches them" screed, because quite a few of them get watched ENOUGH, and live forever on DVD/Streaming.

The late Robert Osborne of TCM probably had the best comment on Oscar: "I love the Oscars because they make people want to make better films." Sometimes I think the statement should be "I love the Oscars because they are the ONLY REASON that people want to make better films."

It is dark irony how Harvey Weinstein is about to loom over all the upcoming awards shows, starting(as I type this) with the Golden Globes this weekend.

For Harvey rather famously took the entire concept of "Oscar campaigns" into the stratosphere. He drew first blood when his Shakespeare in Love knocked off Saving Private Ryan for Best Picture(I still remember the saddish quick look on presenter Harrison Ford's face when he opened the envelope and knew his pal Spielberg wouldn't win.)

I don't think Weinstein dominated with Best Pictures so much as with plentiful nominations and more than a few wins along the way. QT's wins for Pulp Fiction and Django(writing, not direction, not picture). J-Law's win for Silver Lining Playbook. And others. I think Harvey has about 200 Oscar noms to his name.

And now he will be famous for something else entirely.

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Back to Call Me By Your Name. I've been reading about Stuhlberg's speech(Psycho check: he played Lew Wasserman in "Hitchcock") and initial love for the scene seems to be congealing as more people see it and don't like it.

I remain wondering how the subject matter will "play in public" given the youth of one of the lovers. We got Spacey and now Jann Wenner and the whole area is dicey. I don't know how spoilerish it is(having not seen the film) to guess that the relationship doesn't work out in the movie, and perhaps the age thing is addressed.

But we are talking only 7 years difference and consensual. I don't know, maybe a vote will be "brave."

I'm at a loss to consider what the Best Picture front runners are, but I suppose the stars and statement of The Post will allow Hollywood to make the statement it wants to make(Trump = Nixon) and "change the subject" of sexual harrassment. And even there -- La Streep has been dragged into the discussion and , interestingly enough, been quite willing to fight back and engage. So, if The Post wins -- its a three-fer, pro-Post, anti-Trump and defending Streep(and Spielberg's revenge on Shakespeare in Love.)

Notable: TCM is showing Kramer vs. Kramer at its April Film Festival in Hollywood. A poorly timed mistake -- or on purpose? I figure Dusty won't show but La Streep will. And Streep has let us all know that when Hoffman slapped her in "Kramer vs Kramer," it was a surprise, it was real, and it hurt. See, even when Dusty wasn't harrassing women, he was being a real d--k.

Gary Oldman sounds like a lock as Churchill. Though as I recall, his once-ago politics were a little too "right."

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I think this is the OT place to talk a little about Aaron Sorkin's "Molly's Game."

The star, Jessica Chastain, is GG nominated and the movie seems to be "middle-brow Oscar bait" for her in particular: the center of every scene, having to deliver long, long long Trademark rat-a-tat-tat speeches ala Sorkin, and playing a lot of angles of "the strong woman under siege." (A big deal this year.) Too bad there are likely some more artistic and prestigious female performances out there, too.

For Sorkin -- who wrote The West Wing -- is as famous for his TV-ish corner-cutting(of character, and with too much backstory disguised as dialogue) as much as for his rapid-fire dialogue (much in the Howard Hawks traditionI might add.)

I borrowed that phrase "rat a tat tat" from the Ebert site review and I gotta reference another one: the idea being that with Sorkin as the director, nobody's there to edit his dialogue so "the hose is on full blast" throughout the movie. Rat-a-tat-tat; "hose on full blast" -- that about nails it.

But as so often with Sorkin (for me) that doesn't mean it isn't entertaining. And he tells the story with lots of cinematic tricks to make sure we know what's going on -- poker hands appear in diagrams on the screen and the cards move around; directional arrows point us where we need to go.

QT has called Sorkin "the best screenwriter in Hollywood"; a sly way to say " except for me." But its true that both QT and Sorkin share this: their dialogue ENTERTAINS. Its fast, its funny, its gripping. QT has his own profane, n-word driven messiness, though. Sorkin keeps things cerebral, political, business-like.

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I always felt that the final showdown between Nicholson and Cruise in "A Few Good Men" was "an action sequence with words" or perhaps "a fight sequence with words." Its actually better in certain ways BEFORE Nicholson roars "You can't handle the truth" as Tom and Jack spar and parry and richoshet off each other. THIS scene(from a play Sorkin wrote) started everything.

So this time, we've got a strong woman at the center of the action, and she's great. Chastain makes a point of showing us how Molly(based on a real woman, from a true story, from a book) HAD to get glamourous and show off her cleavage and wear tight dresses to fit in with the high-stakes male poker players who played in her room. We see it as a business decision, Molly successfully fends off all passes and isn't seen dating anyone (she professes a desire for children, however.)

I didn't read the book so I don't know the details, but the film roughly splits into a Hollywood Part One and a New York part two -- and boy are the poker games run by Molly different.

This can be said -- in Hollywood, one of the poker players is one of those superrich boy actors(played by Sweet Michael Cera) who proves to be the epitome of evil and everybody's saying he's based on Tobey Maguire. Allegedly. Maybe that's why a New Spiderman was born.

Idris Elba is the articulate, macho $250,000-retainer lawyer who takes on Molly's case, and they have one of those good old-non-romantic romances, rat-a-tat-tatting each other and entertaining us royally.

Kevin Costner is on hand as that Old Stand-By: the tough but loving father who drove his daughter to overacheive with Tough Love. (Molly was an Olympic-level snow skier; her brothers became surgeons and rich and whatnot.) All Costner's Mean-Loving-Daddy scenes seemed pretty formulaic to me, but its fun watching Costner age -- he's definitely a more handsome man with age(though the surfer-guy voice is still there.)

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I liked Molly's Game a lot, start to finish, but I have to admit that Aaron Sorkin may be facing declining returns. A Few Good Men. Charlie Wilson's War(with Hanks and Roberts good, Philip Seymour Hoffman better), Moneyball(Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill ARE Redford and Streisand!.) Loved them. Loved this. But they are rather merging into the same movie.

The only one I didn't love was The Social Network...because I just couldn't take all those supersmart, superrich, super-young Silicon Valley biliionaires.

I don't know what the final gross of Molly's Game will be, but it seems this is , finally, Jessica Chastain's star-making role. Brains, talk, voice, sex appeal. Its got it all.

J-Law can't handle the load forever.

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"Definitely good not great" seems to me to be an indictment of many of the Oscar films of recent years.
I rate quasi-blockbustery things like Baby Driver and Logan and Dunkirk and Get Out, which all had their problems, ahead of both LB and CMBYN. Dunkirk in particular has grown on me seen again at home (with my Dad - he hated the loud, droning score to the point where it ruined the film for him!). I also like indie faves A Ghost Story and Good Time and French arthouse spectacle Nocturama (which was a 'straight to Netflix' for most people) a lot, notwithstanding their various problems. No perfect or even near-perfect films for 2017 for me (A Ghost Story is closest so far). I'm still hoping for a knockout to arrive from Star Wars, Three Billboards, The Post, Shape of Water, Florida Project, Killing of a Sacred Deer (from my guy Yorgos Lanthimos).

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I rate quasi-blockbustery things like Baby Driver and Logan and Dunkirk and Get Out, which all had their problems, ahead of both LB and CMBYN.

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Which probably triggers some of my Oscar skepticism. Its as if ONLY BECAUSE LB and CMBYN have that indie-cred and end-of-year release, we are to take them as "better films" than the blockbusters that came ahead of them. This is not how it was when the Best Picture Oscar went to Gigi and Ben-Hur and West Side Story.

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And I've SEEN Lady Bird , and it really seemed trite to me. Had it been a studio release, I doubt it would have gotten the hype it is getting.


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I'm still hoping for a knockout to arrive from Star Wars, Three Billboards, The Post, Shape of Water, Florida Project, Killing of a Sacred Deer (from my guy Yorgos Lanthimos).

Well, I'm seeing Star Wars tonight and Florida Project tomorrow. In the meantime I can now report on Three Billboards and Killing of A Sacred Deer.

Both films are in some sense about the self-defeatingness of cycles of retributive violence or of justice conceived as partial (= non-impartial) privately-administered retribution. Both films, however, seem more committed finally to their respective genres (Kubrickian - people are really just insects or rats in mazes - coldness and weirdness, and American Gothic - people are varmints and you're on your own - Coen-town, respectively) than they are to having anything much let alone new to say on their supposed topics. At the ends of both I wasn't really sure what the point was. This was a bummer after my being pretty enthusiastic at the half-way point of each.

Both films are shadowed by creators' previous works. KOASD isn't anywhere near as good as The Lobster (last year's best film according to me). I also prefer Lanthimos's earlier Dogtooth (although that's closer I suppose). And 3BOEM is quite fun at times but not as much fun as In Bruges, nor is 3BOEM as satisfying as the director's brother's Calvary and The Guard.

Both KOASD and 3BOEM feature great, committed performances from leads and (different sorts of) splendid dialogue and solid imitation-Kubrick and -Coen visuals respectively. To me, however, both feel like writing exercises that set up something great and then pull back into their respective frustrating sub-genre self-satisfactions.

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KOASD is far too weird for most people, and should probably be avoided in favor of The Lobster for Lanthimos neophytes. KOASD retells a Greek myth that plays a role at the beginning of Aeshylus's Orseteia. I have no idea whether Lanthimos is going to make, as it were, updated versions of the rest of the Oresteia, but on one level he really should. The whole *point* of the Oresteia is to get to the end and see (after several bloodbaths) how impartially administered justice guided by reason can end cycles of violence and counter-violence. As it stands, just snipping off one of the inciting incidents of the Oresteia for a stand-alone film feels empty.

3BOEM is frustrating because it's quite close to being a Unforgiven/Fargo/LA Confidential/No Country/Zodiac/Winter's Bone-level must-see. Personally I think that the second half of the script just needed a whole lot more work - take another 20+ minutes to redeem some characters properly, work through some more investigation details, would be my strong preference. 3BOEM is worth seeing but no classic in my view. Too bad.

Note that in common with most of the other contender movies this year, KOASD and 3BOEM both feature key lines of mumbled/garbled dialogue. After getting home I had to get on line and find their scripts to figure out what the hell had been said. I *hate* having to do that. What a terrible trend.

Tomorrow: Star Wars and The Florida Project!

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A good read. You are serving us well, swanstep.

I see where at the Golden Globes, the comedy musical picture was Lady Bird, and the drama was 3BOEM. "Only one can win" -- which one will it be?

Or will it be The Post?

Seth Meyers had a fairly good visual joke last night when he said of The Post -- "Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks in a Steven Spielberg film" and some woman came out with an armful of awards ready to go ("No not yet" was Seth's joke. ) That could work against The Post. Nominations maybe are OK but Streep, Hanks and, to a lesser degree, Spielberg, have all the Oscars they could need in a lifetime.

Better to allow some less wealthy and less- already-rewarded winners take the big ones.

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I see where at the Golden Globes, the comedy musical picture was Lady Bird, and the drama was 3BOEM. "Only one can win" -- which one will it be?
Yep, and McDormand won for drama actress and Saorise Ronan won for Comedy/Musical actress

3BOEM is so obviously the *sort* of film that the Acad has liked since the '90s - vaguely-Southern, violent, funny, foul-mouthed with McDormand/Harrelson, Fargo meets No Country pedigree - that in a straight shootout with Lady Bird, I'd say it has to win. But maybe interaction with other nominees and wider politics can steal LB a win , e.g., if lots and lots of people have LB as their second choice in part because of a pro-any-woman mood.

I'm still hopeful that one of The Post, Star Wars, Florida Project, Shape of Water will sweep me away!

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Yep, and McDormand won for drama actress and Saorise Ronan won for Comedy/Musical actress

3BOEM is so obviously the *sort* of film that the Acad has liked since the '90s - vaguely-Southern, violent, funny, foul-mouthed with McDormand/Harrelson, Fargo meets No Country pedigree - that in a straight shootout with Lady Bird, I'd say it has to win. But maybe interaction with other nominees and wider politics can steal LB a win , e.g., if lots and lots of people have LB as their second choice in part because of a pro-any-woman mood.

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I'm a' wonderin' if BOTH Golden Globe Best Picture winners(Drama AND Musical/Comedy) have ever been shut out at the Oscars -- with a third "dark horse" emerging. Bets here in that regard would be on The Post.

Because otherwise, we've got a Lady Bird/Billboards showdown(and the entertainment press loves those) AND a Frances McDormand/Sairose Ronan showdown. (And I figure one of those two WILL beat La Streep for The Post at Oscar time.)

Meanwhile, James Franco seems to have been swept up in Me Too troubles...thereby clearing the way for Gary Oldman -- but WAIT -- he's got a domestic violence incident(s?) in HIS past. Tom Hanks, here we come. No, not him, I guess. But somebody. DDL seems to have a clean moral/personal slate...and we're told its his final film before retirement(and with him, unlike, say Sinatra singing, I BELIEVE it. Didn't he go off to learn how to make shoes for awhile?)

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The days are hectic ahead, but I'm interested in seeing these films with at least some Oscar cred soon: I, Tonya(it seems well in the realm of knife's edge drama/comedy, trailer trash characters we feel guilty about, with Allison Janey out to get HER surefire Oscar); The Post(even though Streep and Hanks don't seem all THAT well matched as superstars); and, yeah, Star Wars.

So I've been skimming your Star Wars post with one eye closed, swanstep. But your disappointment is palpable and it seems to have turned into "another one of THOSE": makes a billion dollars worldwide but somehow still tanks(nobody really likes it, it doesn't really bring back the excitement of the first two; nobody wants to see it more than once, etc.)

But I will see it.

And really, if you release your movie world-freakin-wide at tens of thousands of theaters at once, with ten-dollar-plus ticket prices in many countries, how hard IS IT, really, to make a billion dollars? I'll bet two billion kids go to school every day. Because they have to. Its kind of why we see these Star Wars movies. Because we have to.

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So I've been skimming your Star Wars post with one eye closed, swanstep. But your disappointment is palpable and it seems to have turned into "another one of THOSE": makes a billion dollars worldwide but somehow still tanks(nobody really likes it, it doesn't really bring back the excitement of the first two; nobody wants to see it more than once, etc.)
Yikes...I've tried to avoid spoilers at least....but, yes, you nailed it: for me TLJ emitted the same bad odor as the Matrix and Pirates sequels (albeit with a layer of ideas and film-literate cleverness that those turkeys didn't have). I gather (e.g., from peeking at moviechat's TLJ board) that some people don't like TLJ because of the diverse cast, etc., but I have no problem with that and still found lots to complain about!

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Yikes...I've tried to avoid spoilers at least....

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Thank you..its an old rule: don't read unless you are ready for some spoilers

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but, yes, you nailed it: for me TLJ emitted the same bad odor as the Matrix and Pirates sequels

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In both of those cases, I very much liked the original and felt the sequels went WAY off track and thus we are reminded:

Sequels should really, rarely be made.

Because the great story is the story that is told ONCE. To continue a story PAST "The End" is to, in some ways, rebel against what storytelling is about.

But it was worse with the Pirates and Matrix sequels. Its as if someone determined that a plethora of effects would wow everybody enough to not NEED a story. And the results at the box office bore that out(the Pirates movies made a lot of money.)

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(albeit with a layer of ideas and film-literate cleverness that those turkeys didn't have).

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Well, Star Wars always had its own Bible going for it, and with a JJ Abrams New Generation boost, things could stay fairly good, I'd say. I saw the last one (with Ford) and I thought: its closer to the originals that Lucas' own prequels. I was of course, not alone.

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I gather (e.g., from peeking at moviechat's TLJ board) that some people don't like TLJ because of the diverse cast, etc., but I have no problem with that and still found lots to complain about!

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We are, in America and the world, I suppose, dealing with the fact that a "white-central" movie culture of casting is being phased out. Hitchcock -- for one -- is a filmmaker whose films will look stranger and stranger and stranger because the casts are "all white"(with the exception of the "Negroes" in Lifeboat and Topaz.)

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In retrospect it seems one reason that Van Sant's Psycho didn't play quite right in 1998(among all the other reasons) was that the cast was all white. A black or Hispanic Arbogast would likely be necessary today. Which would skew the story -- Norman's killing of the man would be racial in certain ways. Marion and Sam might be an interracial couple -- as they were on Bates Motel. Etc.

To a generation of white people who grew up on Luke, Han, and Leia, the insertion of other races would likely not "feel" like the original -- and I understand that the movie tilts the heroism and leadership to the women. Which is fine but -- its not how things were for decades "at the movies."

Change is part of history.

That said, I think a lot of people are less diverse in their friends in real life than are portrayed in the movies.

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One point about 3BOEM I should have mentioned: Norman Bates and Psycho lurk behind Sam Rockwell's character (and Fairvale behind Ebbing). Sam Rockwell's character is controlled and poisoned by a monstrous mother (albeit in ways we never come to clearly understand but they're a town joke) with whom he lives alone. And when the titular billboards go up, Rockwell's character explains to us that they're out on Drinkwater(?) road (where the inciting crime also also took place) where nobody goes anymore since the Interstate came through.

That 3BOEM relates as much to Psycho as it does to Zodiac and No Country and Fargo and Winter's Bone makes it feel like a movie that *should* win big notwithstanding its unsatisfying 3rd Act. It's mixing it with the big boys, and the performances and dialogue are going to give it very high rewatchability. And that may be enough if everything else is flawed too.

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Devastating take-down of 3BOEM in the Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/18/movies/three-billboards-outside-ebbing-missouri.html
Back-lash alert!

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Star Wars: The Last Jedi
First, a note about the audience - I was at an 8 pm session in the fourth week of release and there were only abut 20 people in the audience. Moreover the cinema I went to only has Star Wars screening in the evening,and all daytime sessions are taken up with Jumanji and Paddington and other proper kids movies. As in the US, SW:TLJ in NZ is already down to #3 at the current box office. I conclude that this film has made a lot of quick money but it is not attracting repeat business, has not become a movie 'everyone has to see' thanks to word of mouth, and is not an especially big hit with kids. Uh-oh.

TLJ has some interesting ideas (reminding me of The Man Who shot Liberty Valance) about the value of legends and heroism and hero worship (all of which reflect at a meta-level to be about fandom and the Star Wars cult itself) but they're kind of heavy and not much fun. It has other even better anti-aristocratic ideas (made most explicit in the final shots of the film which do something completely new for Star Wars) about opposing the idea of a chosen lineage of force-wielders with some more inclusive idea that's not entirely clear but allows for a much broader pool of force-candidates via contents of character alone or something(believing in a chosen family or two is equated with The Dark Side!).

Unfortunately, the film seems more interested in these kinds of big ideas than in conventional story-telling, constructing good action scenes, and so on. The most egregious story-line involves Laura Dern's Vice-Admiral characetr who has a plan but doesn't share it leading other characters to act out and even mutiny. If she shares the plan (and there's really no reason for her not to) then most of the middle plot of the film doesn't have to happen (unless I missed something). The upshot here and elsewhere is that TLJ *feels* convoluted. This gets you thinking about whether that comvolutedness is really necessary...

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... and once you realize it isn't, then you start feeling tired. 'Convoluted' and 'Exhausting' aren't very attractive epithets to have associated with a production. No wonder kids are staying away.

The whole Luke storyline is a bit of a downer although it pays off well. I wonder whether writer/director Johnson got and kept the job because of that final act and the interesting anti-aristocratic ending? It *feels* like everything else in the script was worked backwards from that with varying degrees of success.

I liked the new critters The Porgs a lot, and there were a range of production ideas that are fun for film buffs - references to Citizen Kane and Casablanca among many many others. But ultimately this level of stuff felt a little like someone trying to tart up a corpse. That sounds negative. I guess I am negative on TLJ.

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(Inexplicably, this part of my multi-post response on The Last Jedi came in ABOVE the earlier posts. Its all out of order. Sorry.)

The whole Luke storyline is a bit of a downer although it pays off well.

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I felt that there wasn't enough of it, frankly. And how nice that in Luke's segment, we got meaningful and emotional reappearances by R2-D2 (projecting that holograph of Princess Leia that was considered QUITE the effect back in 1977 and seemed so wonderfully quaint now -- plus a reminder of the young Carrie Fisher) and the legend, the man, Yoda(who appeared first in Empire.)

The downer aspect of Luke's story at least filled me with hope for a cliche to arrive that I wanted very badly: he decides to save the day. Yay.

At least he evaporates on his own terms -- Jedi that he is. Han Solo (human that he is) was murdered. The Last Jedi ends with some sad realizations: of the original main human trio of characters, two are now dead as fictional characters (though, like Obi-Wan, they can come back -- or is the deal only that Jedi Luke can come back) and one is dead in real life.

I assume with Luke, Han, and Leia now gone from the scene, this overstuffed and diverse new cast of young 'uns can take over "as planned." Or can they? I can't say a one of them save maybe Oscar Issacs has my affection. (And what of the treacherous side-jumping Del Toro? Dead probably -- but not necessarily. It would be GREAT if he comes back.)

So what, is there only one more sequel planned? Is this to be a "final trilogy?"



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The most egregious story-line involves Laura Dern's Vice-Admiral characetr who has a plan but doesn't share it
There's another example of this sort of spurious story-telling near the end of the movie: Luke shows up and there's a crucial fact abut his status then that is revealed only later as a big twist for the audience. But in-the-world of the story it makes *zero* sense that Luke wouldn't explain his status and what his plan is to Leia and the other resistance members. The reisistance members have to kind of guess what Luke's plan is on almost no evidence and as it happens they do guess right (unlike in the earlier Laura Dern/Mutiny case where they guess wrongly). In both cases, however, this is absurd: the only reason for neither Laura Dern's Vice Admiral nor Luke to share their plans with their friends is to provide a twist for the audience at the expense of what would be reasonable for them to do in-the-world. [Note that nobody like Leia exclaims in surprise when the twist in Luke's status is revealed as anyone real would - that's because the twist only really exists as a kind of BS pseudo-event for the audience.] I *hate* this kind of plot-twist-driven story-telling. It's common nowadays, e.g. Game Of Thrones did it last season (with Arya and Sansa and Littlefinger) and really cheapened itself in my (I believe fairly widely shared) view. Not everyone regards this sort of thing as an error, but I really can't stand it. And this is a problem that infected even the part of TLJ that I thought worked pretty well! Honestly, it feels like there's not enough Alma Reville-style story-checking and re-checking for sense going on in Hollywood these days. Being able to come up with a series of can-you-top-this, comic-book-y reversals of fortune in a couple of pages seems to be prized in writers ahead of narrative and character coherence over the space of 50-60 pages or a whole script. Grumble grumble.


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Star Wars: The Last Jedi

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ecarle, here. I have now seen this.

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. I conclude that this film has made a lot of quick money but it is not attracting repeat business, has not become a movie 'everyone has to see' thanks to word of mouth, and is not an especially big hit with kids. Uh-oh.

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Its in that weird and special land we have nowadays: making a billion dollars and still feeling like a comedown. Specific reason: it is running behind The Force Awakens(the two-years ago one with Harrison Ford) by $137 million or some such, and as such, "clearly demonstrates a tiring of the franchise." And there is also the issue how much this cost to make and market. If you make a movie for $400 million and it makes $800 million..was it worth it? I'd think so.

I think the issue is that, 40 years down the road, the exhilarating excitement of a mass blockbuster that "everybody is talking about" -- Psycho, The Godfather, The Exorcist, Jaws, Star Wars come most to mind - have been replaced by the "mega blockbuster that nobody is talking about." I sat through The Last Jedi with occasional feelings of emotion(more on that later) but no sense that I was a part of something unique or special that I would never forget.

Part of this, I realize, is a function of age. Cary Grant retired somewhat young(62) because he no longer felt excitement about the movies; maybe that feeling creeps up on all of us as a certain age is reached. On the other hand, I've had parents and grandparents who went to the movies into the final years of their lives. Perhaps more of habit than excitement.

I suppose seeing The Last Jedi offers the same problem as seeing Psycho II or Van Sant's Psycho: what was once incredible to behold(bloody knife shock murders; flashing light saber battles) has been done so many times since that it holds no wonder, any more.

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TLJ has some interesting ideas (reminding me of The Man Who shot Liberty Valance) about the value of legends and heroism and hero worship (all of which reflect at a meta-level to be about fandom and the Star Wars cult itself)

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It is here that I will zero in on what I had discussed about the movie even before seeing it: how this would be the opportunity for Mark Hamill and Luke Skywalker to take center stage, much awaited, and after the use and killing of Big Star Harrison Ford in the first sequel.

Hamill works remarkably well in this part. One remembers something that Harrison Ford said about the first Star Wars trilogy: he didn't think Han Solo was that important to it, and he wanted to be killed off. The story was Luke's and Leia's, Ford said. He was Indiana Jones now.

I think Han's wise-cracking macho was VITAL to the first Star Wars trilogy, but Hamill's reappearance here as Luke reminds us: this was LUKE SKYWALKER's story, originally. Even Leia was side-bar to the young man.

Also, looking at Hamill's aged visiage, I remembered this:

In the very first Star Wars, Hamill had a very conventional, Sean Cassidy-like cutie-pie face. By Empire Strikes Back, an auto accident had rearranged that face and suddenly...Hamill had character guy character. THAT face is what we see in an aged way in The Last Jedi.

But to compare the aged, smash-faced Hamill to that cutie-pie blondie of the very first movie was to...feel great emotion on my part. We've grown up with Luke in our memories, and to see the cute blonde become this tired, haggard, burdened man. Well, again...I felt great emotion. And a sudden nostalgia for the Star Wars summer of 1977 -- a nostalgia that shocked me with its power.

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Unfortunately, the film seems more interested in these kinds of big ideas than in conventional story-telling, constructing good action scenes, and so on. The most egregious story-line involves Laura Dern's Vice-Admiral characetr who has a plan but doesn't share it leading other characters to act out and even mutiny. If she shares the plan (and there's really no reason for her not to) then most of the middle plot of the film doesn't have to happen (unless I missed something). The upshot here and elsewhere is that TLJ *feels* convoluted. This gets you thinking about whether that comvolutedness is really necessary...

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Interesting points, across the board. I wasn't really sure why Dern was withholding the information, though perhaps she shared General Leia's distrust of Oscar Issac's propensity for going "off script on his own." When Issacs presses for information Dern(I will mix up actor and character names going forward) reminds Issacs that he was demoted by Leia. (I also thought it was interesting that Dern's plan, on its own, backfired and almost failed due to Del Toro's treachery...and she had to sacrifice herself to save the plan.)

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The larger issue has to do, I expect, with why George Lucas has distanced himself from these new sequels. He created a set of characters that were HIS, with plots that were HIS, and these two sequels seem to have afforded new and different SETS of writers to keep spit-balling pretty much whatever they want to do. One doesn't feel "the force"(heh) of Lucas' original characters. (Adam Driver's Kylo Ren or whatever his name is will NEVER, EVER match Darth Vader in power.)

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As a "structural matter" I did like how each of the three main storylines in the film used a well-known star actor as a major character and as anchor: Laura Dern(with Jurassic Park on her blockbuster resume) in one story(once Leia went into a coma of sorts), Benecio Del Toro(great) in another story, and Mark Hamill(most importantly) in the third story. These were familiar star faces around whom the other , less familiar and newer actors could gather.

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I liked the new critters The Porgs a lot,

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Cutie pie little bird like guys? I liked them, too -- especially working with the wonderfully nostalgic Chewbacca.

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and there were a range of production ideas that are fun for film buffs - references to Citizen Kane and Casablanca among many many others.

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I caught Casablanca, I think -- the casino? (Which was also a riff on the weird bar in the very first Star Wars and its tinny music.)

Citizen Kane, I missed. Where?

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But ultimately this level of stuff felt a little like someone trying to tart up a corpse.

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That's a tough comment, but isn't it a comment in general on the whole trend of re-treads and sequels and reboots that haunts the American studio film(when it isn't producing comic book hero movies?) I'm afraid what's done is done.

It suddenly makes Vertigo seem even that much MORE profound, doesn't it? Scottie trying to recreate the dead Madeleine in Judy...Hollywood trying to recreate the long-gone excitements of 1977-1983 Star Wars. Van Sant trying to rekindle the 1960 shocks of Psycho...

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That sounds negative. I guess I am negative on TLJ.

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I guess so. I edge from "neutral" to emotional on the film. All the new characters and storylines aren't for me -- aren't MEANT for me. But all of the scenes with Luke Skywalker, and the re-appearances(yet again) of Yoda, R2-D2, C-Three-Pio, and Chewbacca, carried emotion for me.

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And whaddya know, Carrie Fisher DOES have a lot to do in this film. Looking and sounding prematurely aged, knowingly dead now -- she has more emotion and gravitas on screen in the Last Jedi than she ever did as Princess Leia before. When she got her tag at the end credits -- "For Our Princess, Carrie Fisher" -- I actually teared up. Its just me, I guess.

And when she and Mark Hamill finally meet as characters and actors and PEOPLE in the The Last Jedi, well...

It saves The Last Jedi for me.

Think of the final big scene in Guess Who's Coming to Dinner(1967) where Spencer Tracy delivers his final speech to the black and white characters in the room and professes his love for Kate Hepburn(nearby , crying.)

As a speech, it is somewhat overwritten. And the movie wasn't well accepted as a "true" discussion of race relations in 1967.

But Spencer Tracy(already dead, like Carrie Fisher with The Last Jedi, by the film's release) interacting with Kate Hepburn was what the scene was REALLY about.

So it is here when Carrie meets Mark...

"The Last Jedi" gets that special "extra-curricular" emotional boost with me.

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Citizen Kane, I missed. Where?
Rey seeing infinite reflections of herself in her dark-side cave seemed to me to quote the 'hall of mirrors' from near the end of CK:
https://tinyurl.com/yb6k9lw4
But Rey's scene has a bunch of shots so probably the climax of The Lady From Shang-hai is being winked at too:
https://tinyurl.com/y7ljr9jy
[Not everyone would grant Welles, as it were, dominion over mirror shots... after all Chaplin and others did them first. For me, however, there's before and after Welles's mirror shots just as there's before and after various key sequences from Hitchcock. Before the masters get hold of these visual ideas, the ideas are just gimmicks or fx, whereas in their hands the ideas mean something and are networked up to everything else in a film's structure, so every subsequent use of the core idea exists in the shadow of what we now know it could mean. For me, then, it's only natural that current films with visual ideas in their heads are going to find themselves building on bits of Hitch, Welles, Sturges, Leone, etc.]

I have to add that it was a bit of strain for me to remember how to answer your question ecarle! When I dislike a movie I tend to think about it obsessively for a day or two then forget all that reasoning (if a movie's *really* bad I won't even bother to figure out why I think it's bad of course). If I don't write all of that stuff down somewhere I probably won't be able to reconstruct my reasoning later. E.g., I can't find the note I wrote somewhere - or did I? - explaining my problems with last year's stylish French art-horror, Raw. Very frustrating now it's turned up at #1 on UK Critic Mark Kermode's Best of 2017 list - I had all these well-worked out reasons why Raw wasn't all that notwithstanding all its style!

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Tomorrow: Star Wars and The Florida Project!

The Florida Project: Children making (mostly) the best out of quasi-documetary-ized bad situations has been one of the great sub-genres of film since early Hollywood (The Little Rascals, etc. through to Slumdog Millionairre and Beasts of the Southern Wild relatively recently) with landmarks occurring in various foreign cinemas regularly throughout the '40s, '50s , '60s, etc. (Forbidden Games, Apu Trilogy, Los Olvidados, Bicycle Thieves, Fallen Idol, Rome Open City. Germany Year Zero, Mouchette, Spirit of the Beehive, and many many others though things like Children of God relatively recently).

This is the sort of stuff to which TFP asks to be compared. The quasi-documentary basis is people who live hard-scrabble existences off the highways around Disney World in Florida, i.e., with the built-in pathos of gaudy prosperity and consumption so near and yet so far away for the kids who grow up in these literally marginal areas.

We follow largely untrained kids and mostly non-actor adults (except for Willem Dafoe) for about an hour with mostly catch-as-catch-can cinematography and dialogue (I caught about one word in three)...and then gradually a semblance of a simple plot starts to come into focus. One of the mothers (by any ordinary standards, the worst mother) of the kids we mostly follow is probably going to jail and certainly is going to lose custody of her kid, Moonee, who herself won't really understand what's going on.

I liked TFP and am glad I saw it. Like those of most of the films in its sub-genre TFP's quasi-documentary virtues are very real; this is how some people live that you'd never otherwise think about, which is something. If you haven't seen a *lot* of these type of films I think that that might be enough, but for me I wanted something more.... TFP doesn't stand out for me in the context of all the great films in this very specific area that have come before it.

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Your mileage may vary. For example, the director's previous movie, Tangerine (famously shot on an iPhone, w/ a fancy lens adaptor but still) grabbed me in a way TFP didn't. The quasi-documentary basis in that case was trans-gender street sex-workers and recent muslim immigrant communities in LA. That was just more novel for me than TFP's topic I suppose, although, in addition, more of the dialogue was audible in T and bitchy street-queens are just funnier and more moving than the folks we meet in TFP.

For me, then, TFP is worth seeing but not remarkable enough to win awards. Even Dafoe is just fine but there's not much for him to work with really. I don't see TFP making much of an impact at the Oscars.

Tomorrow: The Post (if I can get organizized).

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THis past week saw Phantom Thread, 3 Billboards and THe Post, which I liked in that order. In fact, PT is far and away my favorite film of the year, although it's extremely complex and I look forward to seeing it several more times to get everything out of it. DDL should be a shooin for BA except he already has 3 and the Academy may say enough already.

PT is one of the rare films where I honestly can't say Ive seen this before. And the sexual dynamics are very timely, it's about power, and it's debatable whether Reynolds or Alma has the upper hand. Great use of slightly faded film stock for period effect and amazing use of sound. If it doesn't win for Best Sound, that would be a travesty.

And there are Hitchcockian quotes, at least from Psycho, Vertigo, Rebecca and Suspicion.

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And there are Hitchcockian quotes, at least from Psycho, Vertigo, Rebecca and Suspicion.
Consider me tantalised! Except for Punch-Drunk Love, which I adored (Best picture of 2002 for me ahead of Talk to Her and Far From Heaven), PTA is a director I've admired but not loved. Maybe Phantom Thread can/will turn that around.

Note that PTA is a big fan of Ophuls, so I'm guessing that there'll be a lot of Earrings of Madame D., La Ronde, etc. in Phantom Thread's mid-20C, fashiony mix too. Be still my heart.

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PT is clearly a very personal film for PTA, even the title copies from his initials.

And yes, it does evoke the look of Ophuls.

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@movieghoul. I've seen Phantom Thread now, and agree that it's one of the films of the year, and, yep, Psycho (peep-hole shots! as well as general mother stuff I suppose), Vertigo, Suspicion (Day Lewis is Fontaine!), Rebecca are all in there. But the final, 'Le Modele' segment of Ophuls' Le Plaisir with its 'Happiness is no lark' moral is, I think, PTA's real pole-star here (both PT's ideas and music draw from it, feel like elaborations of and variations from it). The perversity of the film's conclusion also reminded me of Peter Strickland's S&M-enjoining, arthouse darling of a few years back, The Duke of Burgundy, which I was a little cool to (and probably just too square for). I don't feel like exactly the right person to *get* (or get into) either Duke of Burgundy or PT.

Like you, I'll definitely need to see PT again to be sure of my feelings about it, but the film's so short on incident and finally so distancing that that isn't an especially appealing prospect I confess. This suggests that PT is a film that, like most of PTA's stuff for me, I'm going to be stuck admiring more than loving.

Update: Checking around now I see that pretentious New Yorker critic, Richard Brody also identifies Le Plaisir's final segment as PT's controlling influence.

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Tomorrow: The Post (if I can get organizized).
Oops, I ended up seeing The Shape of Water instead. While it's not quite my sort of thing, I can report that TSOW is a beautifully shot fable and period piece, and it's almost certainly Del Toro's best film since Pan's Labyrinth. A lot of people are going to love TSOW. Jeunet and Caro (Delicatessen, City of Lost Children, Amelie) feel like an important new influence on Del Toro here, and in parallel to the darker turn the film ends up taking we end up kind of filming in our heads the more whimsical Jeunet and Caro version of the tale which keeps the lighter tone of TSOW's first half all the way to the end.

In some ways TSOW is an odd duck. It's a fable but it's also R-rated and somewhat bludgeoning in its politics (marginal figures of all sorts up to and including undercover Russian spies are moral angels, and every authority/mainstream figure is a devil): it's strictly for adults but bound to strike many adults as preachy and reductive. Not sure how that's going to play with Acad. voters. My guess is that 3 Billboards is still the one to beat.

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OK, I've finally seen The Post.... It's OK, well-made but the story just isn't very cinematic (apart from lovingly-crafted ultra-close-ups of linotype machines and printing presses). Latter-day Spielberg keeps picking projects (Amistad, Lincoln, Bridge of Spies) that are at bottom about legal questions and governmental procedures and The Post is another. Spielberg tries to tart up the somewhat undramatic premises (here we get a bit of Vietnam combat) but that never really works so in all these movies we seem to end up with a bunch of characters *telling* us repeatedly how important everything we're seeing really is. The most intriguing figures in the Post from Daniel Ellsberg to Macnamara to the Times's Neil Sheehan to Justice Black and future Chief Justice Rehnquist necessarily barely come into focus as everything's tilted towards making the movie of *Kay Graham's Choice* (imagine remaking Jaws so that it's the story of the mayor's heartfelt choice to finally fund Quint to catch the shark).

For me, The Post is overshadowed both by Spotlight's better, more important newsroom tale a few years ago and by Ken Burns's recent epic Vietnam Doc. series. A relatively muted Oscar response to The Post seems about right to me.

Anyhow, lots of films to go - at least Phantom Thread, Loveless, The Levelling, Mudbound, Happy Ending, The Square, Faces Places, Disaster Artist, Logan Lucky, Dowsizing, I Tonya, Battle of Sexes - before I close my accounts on 2017.

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OK, I've finally seen The Post.... It's OK, well-made but the story just isn't very cinematic (apart from lovingly-crafted ultra-close-ups of linotype machines and printing presses). Latter-day Spielberg keeps picking projects (Amistad, Lincoln, Bridge of Spies) that are at bottom about legal questions and governmental procedures and The Post is another.

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Its interesting indeed that this seems to be what interests Spielberg now -- legal questions and governmental procedures. And history.

When the Spielberg career is finally finished, it will look pretty interesting to me: An almost ten year spurt of thriller/fantasy/genre pictures(from Duel to ET), that slowly and surely morphed into a filmmaking career heavy with thoughtful prestige projects about history, law and government. Spielberg made his name and his money(ala Hitchcock) in genre stuff, and then pretty much turned his back on it.

There is none of the full focus on style, sex and violence that Scorsese still gives us; Spielberg's films are identifiable for their smoky use of diffuse light(and a generally gray look in recent decades) and for being "thoughtful." He's still the richest guy around(all those investments in Transformers and animation and the like), but he's practically become an "invisible" filmmaker. Very weird, the Spielberg career. Its likely why he wasn't even thought about for an Oscar nom this year. Too many other , younger guys and gals are being more experimental.

One more thing: Spielberg seems to rely on very smart scripts these days, and almost seems to have sacrificed his storytelling to his writers -- he's almost "for hire" on his own dream projects.

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And yet, as a sidebar: Spielberg has certainly put more genre movies into his mix SINCE ET: Three more Indys(with a fourth to come), the mega Jurassic Park franchise, and "one offs" like War of the Worlds. He is "willing to be the old Spielberg" about every fourth film or so and yet...they just don't have the pizazz of his earlier work.

I have found the trailers of "Ready Player One" to be insane. A vomiting-up of every possible mirror-reflected 80s icon in a screen filled with CGI animation. FILLED. One wonders: how did Spielberg DIRECT this thing? Didn't he just put in an order to Silicon Valley and walk away?

Again: a strange career.

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everything's tilted towards making the movie of *Kay Graham's Choice* (imagine remaking Jaws so that it's the story of the mayor's heartfelt choice to finally fund Quint to catch the shark).

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What a great line! Its been said that ANY movie could, by whim, choose its lead character and conceivably it COULD be the supporting character in someone else's movie.

I suppose the fairness of focusing on Katherine Graham here is a 41-years later bow to the fact that Graham was NOWHERE found or seen in "All the President's Men." The Oscars bear it out: Streep is nominated; Spielberg and Hanks are not.

Note in passing: I don't know how the grosses will end up, but The Post has Streep and Hanks in it at a time when their box office appeal is supposedly on the wane. Hanks especially hasn't had a big hit in years, I don't think, not even Bridge of Spies. He doesn't much care; he made his zillions and has his two Oscars. Still "Streep and Hanks in Spielberg's The Post" feels a little musty.

I still want to see The Post, but the idea of yet another movie "telling us repeatedly how important everything we're seeing really is" may smack a bit of the condescending. I've never really thought Spielberg is a very bright interview -- somebody writes his better lines. Hanks and Streep, well, we've heard from them and its not too earth shaking what they have to say. (Though I did like non-Trump-fan Hanks say of Trump's election: "It reflected a rejection of the Clinton-Bush continuum." True. Those two names were starting to sound like the Chevron and Shell of politics.)

It feels to me like "The Post" lacks the urgency and oomph of a true classic.

But I'll see it.

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Yes, Graham was totally absent from ATPM which makes me wonder how she could have been so involved with the Pentagon Papers story and then disengaged from Watergate. Although there is a prominent reference to her anatomy.

And Spielberg couldn't resist a final scene connecting the dots to Watergate which got chuckles from the audience. (At least, he resisted bringing on a young Woodward or Bernstein to say how he wishes he had a story that big.)
Also, it reminded me of a scene from Forrest Gump. Hey, Hanks played the guy who got the burglars arrested, now he's playing the guy who exposed the story!

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At least he resisted bringing on a young Woodward or Bernstein to say how he wishes he had a story that big.
That would have been amusing, whereas the Watergate tag at the end just feels a little pat (with some crumby, thriller-like score punctuating it!). I expected the film to conclude with a sobering scroll about how many Americans and Vietnamese were still going to die *after* the publication of the Pentagon Papers, then follow that with how many Americans and Vietnamese died after McNamara and the Pentagon had concluded (in 1965 I think) that the war was unwinnable and misguided.

Omitting something like this seemed to me to undermine the film's seriousness of purpose - the War and the Pentagon Papers start to look like pretexts for talking about Trump and contemporary women-in-workplace issues.

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Yes, Graham was totally absent from ATPM

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I wonder why?

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which makes me wonder how she could have been so involved with the Pentagon Papers story and then disengaged from Watergate.

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A fair question.

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Although there is a prominent reference to her anatomy.

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Say what?

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And Spielberg couldn't resist a final scene connecting the dots to Watergate which got chuckles from the audience.

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Well, I would figure it is practically required. He ended "Munich"(about revenge for the killing of Israeli athletes at the 1972 Olympics) with a shot of the Twin Towers.

What's also interesting is that the Pentagon Papers were about a far more life-and-death subject than Watergate was.

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(At least, he resisted bringing on a young Woodward or Bernstein to say how he wishes he had a story that big.)

That would have been a bit tacky...though using today's CGI, he could have used "young Redford and Hoffman imagery" to bring them back.

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Also, it reminded me of a scene from Forrest Gump. Hey, Hanks played the guy who got the burglars arrested, now he's playing the guy who exposed the story!

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Ha...the interconnections of the movies!

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I don't recall the details, but in ATPM one of the guys under investigation calls up WOodward or Bernstein outraged about a story they wrote threatening to put Mrs. Graham's t**s through a wringer.

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The Levelling:
Not being considered for either Oscars or Baftas, but nonetheless critically praised, The Levelling is an exciting debut from writer/director Hope Dickson Leach. A young woman (Ellie Kendrick) is called back from Vet School to the family farm after her brother commits suicide (or did he?). Secrets and tensions within the family boil over... Nothing terribly surprising or even complicated occurs but it's so beautifully shot and acted and sound designed, and so thoughtfully put together (and it doesn't overstay its welcome at only 83 mins) that it haunts and marks Dickson Leach as one to watch. Kendrick, who's in every scene, is fantastic. I mainly knew her as Meera Reed on Game of Thrones before this - which is a small role - here she carries the film. If you enjoy moody family dramas with a strong sense of place then The Levelling is definitely worth checking out.

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Only you, swanstep, only you...can direct us to this kind of special find. I do wish I could have gotten into Game of Thrones -- it seems to be spawner all sorts of stars I don't know, but would have known, if I had watched the show.

I know all the Sopranos and Mad Men people and actually, they aren't working all that much(Jon Hamm doing H and R Block commercials!) Well, Edie Falco, I guess. And I see where Christina Hendricks has gotten a network series. I know the money is good, but they must miss the Mad Men heat.

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Mad Men people and actually, they aren't working all that much
You seem to have forgotten Elizabeth Moss who's been cleaning up lately as lead in one of the TV shows of the year, The Handsmaid's Tale, as well as Top Of The Lake, not to mention being in this year's Palme D'Or Winner, The Square (coming up shortly for me! before I finally get a chance to see Phantom Thread next week).

Jon Hamm also seems to have turned a corner. He was good in the semi-hit Baby Driver, and his latest film, Beirut (wr. by Tony Gilroy) is getting raves, e.g., here:
http://www.vulture.com/2018/01/beirut-review.html
It sounds more adult than any of the Oscar films.

The Game of Thrones crowd are all getting their various shots, but none of the leads has really caught on (real movie stardom is an elusive beast). The more character-actor players are, however filling out cast lists across movie-dom.

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Mad Men people and actually, they aren't working all that much
You seem to have forgotten Elizabeth Moss 444

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Oh, yeah -- her. HAH. Well, me and the typing faster than thinking, you know.

And as it was set from the beginning , Moss was the "co-lead" with Jon Hamm, as his superior male took a dive and her oppressed woman rose.

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who's been cleaning up lately as lead in one of the TV shows of the year, The Handsmaid's Tale, as well as Top Of The Lake, not to mention being in this year's Palme D'Or Winner, The Square (coming up shortly for me! before I finally get a chance to see Phantom Thread next week).

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Is that ALL?

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Jon Hamm also seems to have turned a corner. He was good in the semi-hit Baby Driver, and his latest film, Beirut (wr. by Tony Gilroy) is getting raves, e.g., here:
http://www.vulture.com/2018/01/beirut-review.html
It sounds more adult than any of the Oscar films.

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I suppose here almost the only issue is: why's he doin' those H and R Block commericals? Well, they do taxes so I suppose they are rich so I suppose he is paid well.

Jon Hamm's in that Clooney-esque position of having a great face and voice -- and the need to somehow get past his handsomeness to provide a real "movie starrish" quality. On the other hand, Baby Driver and I assume Beirut are almost indie-ish and he can always make his way there. (Hamm seemed dangerously wasted, along with Gal Gadot, and the Superspies next door in that comedy with Ted whatever his name is, a coupla years ago.)

Where's my fave, Roger Sterling himself, John Slattery?

Meanwhile, wait a minute: sweet and demure and cute Allison Brie carved out a Netflix hit last year counterintuitively playing an 80's lady wrestler...and her husband is played by....Harry Crane! (I saw clips, and thought that Brie's character had finally divorced Pete...)

So...never mind. Except maybe for Slattery. But he's probably a regular on some show I don't watch.

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The Game of Thrones crowd are all getting their various shots, but none of the leads has really caught on (real movie stardom is an elusive beast).

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Yes, real movie stardom is elusive, and more elusive all the time. Sometimes I think we are simply going to float in a sea of "familiar faces" -- "mere" actors who simply don't get the chance to become the next Cary Grant, Marilyn Monroe, or Bogart. Or even Steve McQueen. The iconic roles aren't there and audiences aren't quite so worshipful.

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The more character-actor players are, however filling out cast lists across movie-dom.

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I am reminded of SNL. Where once the show seemed to spawn major movie stars fairly regularly(Chase, Belushi, Ackroyd, MURPHY, Sandler, Myers, Farrell, Wiig)....more often than not, what the show is creating is supporting players for film and series TV. And then you have Tina Fey and Amy Poehler going over to TV sitcoms, then up to movies...now back down to TV series again. "Familiar faces," but not really major stars.

Also, I think that SNL's recent trade off of very high ratings for constant Trump attacks is "diluting the brand" -- the top players are getting swamped by all the attack politics, outshone by Alec Baldwin when he appears - which seems less regularly right now -- and it is hard to break out as a movie star from such a polarized base camp. Plus, when the show is NOT political....its not very funny. Where are the water cooler catch phrases? Well, maybe we don't have water coolers anymore.

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Mudbound:
A quite old-fashioned, prestige, period, family epic (sort of Giant meets Best Years of Our Lives meets 12 Years a Slave). It's a Best Picture Contender if I ever saw one (I'd take it over The Post and Call Me By Your Name for a start), and I dare say that if Roger Ebert were still alive he'd have stumped like crazy for it to get a nom.. Instead it's only been nom'd for supporting actress, Cinematog., Adapted Screenplay, and Song.

Superb acting ensemble so that it's weird to single out Mary J. Blige for a nom (tho' she's very good). Solid, Faulkner meets Steinbeck 'great American novel'-type script. All technicals first rate. Maybe could have used a more traditional emotion-wringing score. A shame perhaps that Mudbound got scooped up by Netflix after succeeding at Sundance last year.

M. was the second Netflix-only film I watched this week. The other was (from sublime to ridiculous) Cloverfield 3 which dropped as a post-Superbowl surprise on Netflix worldwide. It's a truly dreadful and stupid film. The no marginal cost to consumers model for C3 was the correct move; you'd be furious if you paid full price for such a turkey.

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120 BPM:
120 BPM won second prize at Cannes last year, and while it's not in contention at the Oscars, many critics have saluted it as a should-have-been.... It records for posterity what a particular early '90s moment in the AIDS crisis felt like to certain sorts of activists. Lots of drugs and drug combinations are being tried, and a big breakthrough is at hand (by the late '90s HIV is no longer a death sentence at least in rich countries) but testing and trials need to occur, and private companies want to protect their intellectual property, and nothing's happening fast enough for people who are dying. The film plunges us into the political strategizing of activist group ACT UP's Paris branch. As well as meetings, we tag along on protests and Lab Invasions, and also on club night celebrations. Somewhat like Florida Project, out of this quasi-documentary buzz and confusion we start to focus on just a couple of characters: HIV+ve Sean and his -ve lover Nathan. The second half of the film is their (not too surprising) story. Sean&Nathan's relationship is vividly drawn (much more so than the shallow gay couple in Call Me By Your Name), and that together with the capturing of a specific tension-filled moment in gay history are the reasons to see this film. There are some interesting dream-like reveries scattered throughout the film too that I'd need to watch again to be sure I understood them, and I probably will see it at least once more (but not for a while).

120 BPM is definitely worth seeing if its topic sounds at all interesting to you, and it's a solid, 7.5-8/10 piece of work I'd say. Not quite interesting enough to be one of my films of the year, but a good and important film in its own way.

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The Disaster Artist:
As is well-known, TDA dramatizes the making of The Room (2003), the legendarily bad, self-produced film that became a hit on (what remains of) the Midnight Movie circuit, i.e., as a kind of '00s successor to Plan 9 from Outer Space. Franco's TDA roughly stands to The Room as Burton's Ed Wood stands to Plan 9. The director of The Room, weirdo Tommy Wiseau, was his own lead, i.e., his own Lugosi, so the story here is a lot more cramped than in the Ed Wood case. Ed Wood made lots of movies and Lugosi with the special sort of single-role-based stardom he pioneered contains within himself a whole shadow history of Hollywood and is inherently fascinating and moving. Wiseau begins and ends with The Room, which limits the interest of TDA.

For me, this was a problem. I haven't seen The Room, and, really, I kind of lack the Bad-Movie-watching gene that some people seem to possess. Franco does a good impression of Wiseau and recreates much of The Room perfectly (an end-credits sequence gives us a split-screen comparison of The Room scenes with their TDA recreations) but why bother? was never really answered at least to my satisfaction. #MeToo troubles for Franco appear to have prevented TDA from building up a head of steam in Awards season, but I doubt whether it was going anywhere in any case. The Oscars have shown a lot of love for meta-filmic themes recently with The Artist, Birdman, La La Land, but TDA isn't nearly as polished or as ambitious as those. Alison Brie is super-cute in a small role (looking younger than ever), so there's that.

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A really good appreciation of The Florida Project here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXbKeHAoA84
I may have sold it a little short earlier, and I'm looking forward to seeing TFP again.

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Dunkirk is so much more cinematic than nearly all of these movies (with a few notable exceptions that give it a run for it's money)... But there is no way they're giving the best picture or director Oscars to an all men movie...

Get Out is a funny horror movie but it looks like video... It has a big budget TV look...

I think the Oscar winner for best picture and best director will have to send a clear message from Hollywood... It is nearly certain to be female driven given the sexual harrassment stuff... So, Lady Bird is a strong candidate... As is Mudbound for best director...

Although Get Out seemed like the favourite before all the sexual harrassment stuff... I can see it getting best director instead of the women directed movies, but not winning best picture...

I can easily see Wonder Woman get some surprising Oscar nominations and wins...

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Dunkirk is so much more cinematic than nearly all of these movies (with a few notable exceptions that give it a run for it's money)... But there is no way they're giving the best picture or director Oscars to an all men movie...
You may be right that the temper of the times dooms Dunkirk. I agree with you that Dunkirk feels like an achievement in direction, production design, overwhelming sound design, etc. in a way that many of the other Oscar favorites do not.

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I have seen I Tonya, and I believe I can believably bring it in for some Oscar discussion(alas, so few of the other films, have I seen.)

The "Oscar lock" would seem to be to Allison Janey as Tonya's horrific, bullying monster of a mother. Its ironic: in some ways this is just a "worst case" version of the mom that Janey plays on the TV series "Mom," but as someone said "the character wins the Oscar, not the actor" and THIS mom is equal parts big laughs and horror(the horror part isn't used on "Mom.")

I also have to go back to 2003 and give props to Billy Bob Thornton in Bad Santa for giving us the "mean and barely lovable drunken sex-crazed misanthrope character" that not only he has played so well in various movies, but that others have played in his stead: Bill Murray, Melissa McCarthy, and now Allison Janey.

Did not Margot Robbie win the Golden Globe in the comedy/musical category for this? Versus the Lady Bird girl in drama? Seems to me Robbie's got the Oscar. Even assuming stunt doubles and CGI for much of her skating scenes, it pretty clearly is Robbie on the ice for a fair amount of time -- you can see the hard work. Robbie, so gorgeous in The Wolf of Wall Street and other films, is willing to accentuate her features into ugliness here -- a scene where she grits her teeth into a false grin for a LONG time resembles how Mrs. Bates grins in her rocking chair. This is the "pretty woman plays ugly" sort of stuff that got Charlize Thereon the Oscar for Monster.


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I Tonya rather has it both ways on its issues of class. Tonya Harding grew up poor and became hard. The movie at once offers sympathy for Tonya's economic plight BUT....rather delights in the schtick of the tough working class -- we get filmed interviews in which both Tonya and her mother chain smoke, and we remember just how funny-cool a prop a cigarette can be. And Janney as the mom also has a glass of booze in her hand and a pet parrot on her shoulder in HER interviews to complete the comedy schtick (the parakeet keeps biting Janney's ear for further comic effect, must have put bird seed in it.)

The movie shows us Tonya at childhood begging her departing father to "please take me with you." Her being left behind with the monstrous Janney is seen as the father's capitulation to handing his daughter over to a lifetime of abuse. And it comes. Tonya escapes her bullying mother and enters into a co-dependent poor marriage with Jeff Gilhooley(Sebastian Stan) who is soon beating her, too. (In one of the film's many interview segments, Tonya says "Nancy Kerrigan got hit once and the world sh...t. Getting beaten was my day to day life!")

I somehow feel that in this "year of the woman," it is Robbie and Janney who will win for their dysfunctional mother/daughter team rather than the more "normal" mother and daughter in Lady Bird. We shall see.

Much has been made that I Tonya uses the techniques of both Scorsese(the character breaking the fourth wall and talking to us, ala GoodFellas and The Wolf of Wall Street) and QT(jumping around in time with titles). I see the film as a knowing homage rather than a misfired copycat. THIS story deserves to be told THIS way.

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The film edges into Tonya's "kinda sorta" complicity in what happened. She distractedly OKed a plan to send death threat letters to Kerrigan(after getting one herself), but had no idea this would morph into the crackpot and brutal plan to kneecap Kerrigan. This is all attested to Gilhooley's delusional overweight moron of a friend, Shawn Eckhardt. The actor playing him does a great scene in which, being interviewed for TV, he professes that he is , indeed, an "operative working counter-terrorism intelligence on a worldwide basis," while squinting and looking for all the world like he could get intelligence for grocery shopping. You think its a joke scene done for the movie -- and then they show the REAL interview, with the REAL Shawn Eckhardt, at the end. Hoo boy.


I figure I Tonya as a lock for Janney(who has certainly earned her day); a possible for Robbie(only being "too blessed" with looks and fame might stop it) and...that's about it. Oh, script maybe, but we've seen many aspects of this movie before.

I think the film's take on lower class life is a tricky one. We are meant to understand that these people get mean because they are tamped down from the start, but we are also asked to laugh at them.

I see that they are taking the real Tonya Harding around with them to events, and she is getting a "second chance." The movie has a great scene where, being sentenced and banned from skating for life, she screams to the judge "Don't do that, please! Give me the jail time! You only gave my husband jail time! I'll do the jail time!" and you sense the unfairness of what her lowlife husband and his worse friends did to her. Its unfair. Maybe Tonya will find some peace, now.

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Thanks for the detailed breakdown of I Tonya and of Robbie's and Janney's chances. It does sound like the sort of thing and the sorts of performances that Oscar often rewards. Lady Bird's key performances are very fine but maybe a little muted for Oscar-voters give a full-throated alternative (and LB's ending which keeps daughter and mother apart and in effect commuicating through the father is very realistic in how unsatisfying it is... if I Tonya delivers a more conventionally energetic ending then look out!). I Tonya's imitation-Scorsese, *more*-directed feel will also help it with voters versus Lady Bird's lightly-directed, not-very visual approach. 3BOEM's imitation-Coens (The Times's hit piece that movie effectively smears it as 'Tupperware Tarentino - Back-Lash!) does the same job.

If you haven't seen it, check out the Times's semi-valentine to Harding last weekend:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/10/movies/tonya-harding-i-tonya-nancy-kerrigan-scandal.html

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Thanks for the detailed breakdown of I Tonya and of Robbie's and Janney's chances. It does sound like the sort of thing and the sorts of performances that Oscar often rewards.

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Yes, but I forgot that it was Frances McDormand, not Robbie, who won a Golden Globe, and who, just last night, won the SAG award, too. Janney picked up the Supporting Actress SAG, so I would say she continues as a "lock." Robbie's chances and the Lady Bird girl's chances seem to be dwindling for the Oscar vs. "tough funny Frances"(who already has an Oscar for that classic Fargo performance of years ago.)
It would be ironic if Robbie doesn't win because of "Paul Newman/Tom Cruise/Brad Pitt" syndrome -- too successful and good-looking to win yet. And yet, J-Law won for a lot less than what Robbie does here. But then, J-Law had Harvey Weinstein pulling the strings...

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Lady Bird's key performances are very fine but maybe a little muted for Oscar-voters give a full-throated alternative (and LB's ending which keeps daughter and mother apart and in effect commuicating through the father is very realistic in how unsatisfying it is... if I Tonya delivers a more conventionally energetic ending then look out!).

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I think that's the issue here. The mother/daughter conflict in Lady Bird (based on Greta Gerwig's real relationship with her mother) is just a bit too nice and real to compete with the Harding mom-daughter deathmatch.

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I Tonya's imitation-Scorsese, *more*-directed feel will also help it with voters versus Lady Bird's lightly-directed, not-very visual approach.

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Well, using the techniques of Scorsese and QT certainly get you a certain "rhythm" that is most entertaining. Whereas Lady Bird is in the "straight forward indie film drama" tradition.

A great bit in "I , Tonya": they alternate between talking-head-at-home interviews with Tonya, husband Jeff, and Mother , er, Connie?(Janney)

And during a long stretch of the story dedicated to the marriage part, suddenly we cut to Janney in her "interview clip" where she has always been (on the couch, with parrot) snarling (paraphrased):

"Maybe you are noticing that during this stretch of the story, my sub-plot has been flushed down the toilet...F---K!"

Or something like that. A brilliant "twisting" of the supposedly "real" interview footage.

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3BOEM's imitation-Coens (The Times's hit piece that movie effectively smears it as 'Tupperware Tarentino - Back-Lash!) does the same job.

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3BOEM still seems to be winning, the hit piece didn't have enough clout.

Yet.

The Oscars are famous these years for in-doing a supposed "sure thing." Wasn't La La Land supposed to beat Moonlight last year? (Almost did -- here comes the one-year anniversary of THAT debacle! I wonder if Beatty and Dunaway will come back and do it again with "perfect" cards this year.)

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I suppose Billboards has more "on its mind" than Lady Bird(rather lowkey coming of age story with clichés) or I Tonya(rather standard issue biopic) and that may pull it across the finish line. Gender issues, racial issues, powerful drama, etc. Get Out had a lot of that too, but evidently not in the Oscar tradition(its hypnosis-thriller overtones make it almost like the Hitchcock movies that Oscar always snubbed.)

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If you haven't seen it, check out the Times's semi-valentine to Harding last weekend:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/10/movies/tonya-harding-i-tonya-nancy-kerrigan-scandal.html

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Thanks for that link, swanstep. The article was a good one. "I Tonya" was also bookended with a TV news special about Tonya(and her mother, today). Its a classic case of "movie tie-ins," but also a reminder that the Harding/Kerrigan story WAS big, and does matter, and continues to have both Rashomon aspects(what DID Tonya have to do with this event?) and social class aspects(forget about the incident, what about this woman's LIFE? Hardscrabble beginning to today.)

I would like to point out here that I generally don't go to Oscar-bait movies just because they are Oscar bait. I've gotten rather cynical about that -- "Well, its nominated for an Oscar, now I HAVE to see it." Though I certainly used to do that. I'm getting older. I see fewer movies.

I went to "I Tonya" because I was interested in the story, and the trailer had that right mix of drama and comedy(the NYT article gets into the downside of that -- we are to laugh at a woman who was beaten by her husband and mother?), and because I like both Margot Robbie and Allison Janney(who is rather "the female JK Simmons, or vice versa.)

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I have seen I Tonya now, and quite enjoyed it. Heavy Scorsese influence throughout with notes and shots lifted freely from Goodfellas, Raging Bull, and King of Comedy, which makes for a good time despite the occasionally harrowing subject-matter. That heavy directorial hand does, I believe, crowd out our ability to connect with the performances somewhat compared to both Lady Bird and 3BOEM. This may hurt it at Oscar time. We'll see. Both Janney and Robbie are contenders tho'. If either or both of them camps out in Hollywood for the next month schmoozing like crazy, charming Academy members and really showing that they *want* to win, they could.

Interesting how both of the female-centric sports that came to dominate Olympics coverage in the US in the '90s (figure-skating, gymnastics) are kind of back in the news now for their respective terrible scandals.

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I have seen I Tonya now, and quite enjoyed it. Heavy Scorsese influence throughout with notes and shots lifted freely from Goodfellas, Raging Bull, and King of Comedy, which makes for a good time despite the occasionally harrowing subject-matter.

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The harrowing subject matter seems to be keeping its prospects on the knife's edge. Are we supposed to laugh AT the lower working class life that led to Tonya's beatings by mother and husband? No....but at the OTHER stuff(like the husband's idiot friend) yes. Meanwhile: there seems to be some backlash out there: was Tonya really that innocent? And wasn't the "incident" very brutal indeed? (That backlash could be part of a "political campaign" to dash Oscar hopes -- people are hired to do that nowadays.)

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That heavy directorial hand does, I believe, crowd out our ability to connect with the performances somewhat compared to both Lady Bird and 3BOEM. This may hurt it at Oscar time. We'll see.

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Interesting to me: it seems that "the real Scorsese's" heavy directorial hand in "The Wolf of Wall Street"(to which I Tonya also owes a debt) may be a case of the original imitating his imitators. It didn't win any Oscars, either, though it was nominated(and I loved it.)

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Both Janney and Robbie are contenders tho'. If either or both of them camps out in Hollywood for the next month schmoozing like crazy, charming Academy members and really showing that they *want* to win, they could.

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Janney seems like so much of a lock(for, alas, a pretty easy comedy perf) that she could get upset. Robbie seems so damn committed to both the physical demands of the role AND its "sides"(pathos, tragedy, comedy, possible villainy) that she could BE the upsetter.

Makes for an interesting Oscar race, guessing-game wise. I'd say that goes for the frontrunner status of Billboards for Best Picture, and even for Oldman as Churchill (Oldman has some bad treatment of women in his past.)

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Interesting to me: it seems that "the real Scorsese's" heavy directorial hand in "The Wolf of Wall Street"(to which I Tonya also owes a debt) may be a case of the original imitating his imitators. It didn't win any Oscars, either, though it was nominated(and I loved it.)
Oh well, if IT misses out on a few awards a la WoWS and Goodfellas (won only for Joe Pesci, and, let's face it, Janney's supporting performance/role isn't quite as blow-you-away dominating as Pesci's - he gets the final shot!) then I suspect that its vigorous/Scorsese/Walsh direction means it'll still end up being more widely seen than most of the other main contenders will. I can see IT playing forever on Cable, as well as earning out solidly for months in theaters with good word of mouth.

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Oh well, if IT misses out on a few awards a la WoWS and Goodfellas (won only for Joe Pesci, and, let's face it, Janney's supporting performance/role isn't quite as blow-you-away dominating as Pesci's - he gets the final shot!)

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Its hard to beat what Joe Pesci did in that movie. Very funny...deadly serious. And then he does a few more movies and practically disappears.

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then I suspect that its vigorous/Scorsese/Walsh direction means it'll still end up being more widely seen than most of the other main contenders will. I can see IT playing forever on Cable, as well as earning out solidly for months in theaters with good word of mouth.

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I agree with all of that. Its what I think I meant when I said I went to see I Tonya not because of any Oscar promotion...but because I loved the trailer and I WANTED to see it. Not so(yet) with The Florida Project or Three Billboards or Shape of Water.

I've found a whole group of WOWS fans in my various circles of aging boy men(sorry, its how they/I are) most of whom never saw it in the theaters. I see WOWS on par with Animal House, Caddyshack and..yes...Dr. Strangelove, MASH the movie, and Blazing Saddles...in being an interconnected series of comedy episodes, each of which can be set to memory and said back at parties. ("You f'ed up...you trusted us!" "Its inda hole!" "Well, General Ripper went and did a silly thing..." "We're the Boys from Dover!" "They said you wuz hung...and they wuz right!") I'm not sure the I Tonya lines are out there yet, but when they come, the great part is: they are from women. For the most part.

The male idiot friend who thinks he is a spy might create some.

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Interesting how both of the female-centric sports that came to dominate Olympics coverage in the US in the '90s (figure-skating, gymnastics) are kind of back in the news now for their respective terrible scandals.

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Metoo or whatever it should be called (Metoo seems to be getting co-opted and diluted) is the horrific gift that keeps on giving...justice.

To see that PARADE of young female gynmasts facing their predator...I'm starting to think there are enough male predators out there to keep this revenge going for years (even as, yes, I think some less guilty men are getting accused by some less innocent women but...that's showbiz.)

I would say this bespeaks the dangers of men training such young, nubile and dependent women. But we've got the male stuff done by Sandusky.

Overall, a horrorshow. Hopefully leads to a new day...perhaps parents sitting in on ALL coach interaction, maybe in shifts?

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Oscar noms are out. Political activism (which has been incredibly loud about all white, male Directing noms at the GGs, Baftas etc.bears fruit in that two debut films get Directing nods (Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird and Jordan Peele for Get Out). McDonagh (whose 3 Billboards film otherwise got a lot of love and could win Picture), Spielberg, Guadignino all miss out.

Directing and Picture Noms have traditionally been very hard to get. With up to 10 Best Pic noms, *that's* changed now and if the activism of this year persists then Director nods are now going to have a representative function: if a director of an OK film is from a historically under-represented group, that director is now in with a very good chance.

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WHile I'm glad to see major noms for Phantom THread, my fav film of the year, I was disappointed to see it snubbed in the cinematography and sound categories, as well as best actress for Vicki Kriep, a young, more earthy MEryl Streep type I hadn't seen before, who goes toe to toe with DDL for the length of the film. But admittedly the actress category is unusually strong this year.

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Its interesting how the Golden Globes nominees have been culled, leaving us with the Top Ten, acting wise. Gary Oldman as Churchill and Frances McDormand are the ones to beat(though McDormand's category IS strong, any number of women could be an upset here.)

I gotta say that that overlong "Best Picture" list hasn't much captivated me, ever. Its too many titles, and they shift in number year to year. George Clooney put it best: "the basketball hoop has been widened to make for more scoring." If Billboards is the front runner, it feels like a weak one to me, already losing steam(and its director wasn't nominated.) I sense what happened last year(without the card mix-up): La La Land suddenly losing to Moonlight. Could happen again this year.

The politics of the Oscars are now pretty much in place...race and gender(not in the acting categories, in direction and elsewhere), and yet it seems that the voting some years indicates "you gotta pick who you gotta pick."

A MeToo victory: Casey Affleck, last year's Best Actor, will not present Best Actress(he has some settled harassment claims.) I'm wondering who will: A male actor? A female actress? A female actor?

I'm also wondering if Warren and Faye will come back and "do it again." I expect that they might be fearful but why not get them to do Best Picture again and get to do it right?

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I'm also wondering if Warren and Faye will come back and "do it again." I expect that they might be fearful but why not get them to do Best Picture again and get to do it right?
It's 50 years since 2001:A Space Odyssey. Dullea and Lockwood are still alive (so's fx wiz Doug Trumbull). Have Cruise introduce a brief video and music blast from the film, then Dullea and Lockwood come out to present, do a HAL 9000 bit with their phones, grab a standing O. Highlight of the night.

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It's 50 years since 2001:A Space Odyssey. Dullea and Lockwood are still alive (so's fx wiz Doug Trumbull).

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I did not KNOW that. I thought they were all gone. The two actors certainly have not worked in many years. Kubrick used them for a certain bland anonymity. I do recall that the more handsome Lockwood was married to Stefanie Powers for a few years.

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Have Cruise introduce a brief video and music blast from the film, then Dullea and Lockwood come out to present, do a HAL 9000 bit with their phones, grab a standing O. Highlight of the night.

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Very, very cool idea. 2001 is probably THE monumental film of 1968(though my personal favorite is Bullitt, which will get an anniversary showing at the TCM film festival in April.)

I suspect the only thing against it is that whereas "Warren and Faye" were hometown Hollywood insiders, Kubrick never really was, there was no warmth towards the England-dwelling American, and is little retained knowledge of who Dullea and Lockwood were.

Still...if the world looks towards Anniversaries in general -- and 50th Anniversaries in particular -- 1968 should be the year of 2001.

Which reminds me: 2018 is the 60th Anniversary Year of Vertigo, and the American Cinemark multiplex chain is showing Vertigo in March.

Which reminds me: 2019 will be the 60th Anniversary Year of North by Northwest.

Which reminds me: 2020 will be the 60th Anniversary Year of Psycho...it seems like only yesterday, Newsweek was celebrating the 50th Anniversary of Psycho.

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and there is little retained knowledge of who Dullea and Lockwood were
That's why you'd have to bring them out to take a bow and present *after* the clips package. A nice point of continuity: Dullea was an old man in final scenes of 2001 (and again in 2010) so he'd now be looking close to that in real life. Set up the transition from the final shot of the clips package accordingly.

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Dullea/Lockwood are probably not big enough for Best Picture honors, but they could do this for the Best Visual Effects (which was all 2001 won for back then).

Douglas Rain is still around too to provide HAL's voice.

And there's a Psycho reference in the casting of HAL, isn't there?

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There IS a Psycho reference in the casting of HAL, indeed. You remember well.

Kubrick first cast Arbogast himself -- Martin Balsam -- as the voice of HAL. It remains interesting to me how different that voice would have been than that which became famous.

HAL as we have "him" has a cultured, borderline effete, yet slightly boyish voice. And it is sad to listen to that voice "die" as HAL is regenerated back to childhood IQ and then nothingness by Dullea.

Balsam's voice was always tougher and gruffer, more manly. I can't see how Balsam would have quite rendered the pathos of HAL's "death"(even as HAL is being killed in self-defense for killing the other astronaut and coming after Dullea.)

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You guys have me wishin' and a hopin' that this really happens at the Oscars!

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Kubrick may have been attracted to Balsam's straight man line readings in films like Psycho, 12 ANgry Men and A THousand Clowns, but when Balsam tried out, Kubick found a bit on unwanted emotion creeping into his voice so went with Rain.

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"Unwanted emotion," huh? Interesting. I had not read that.

I suppose Balsam found it hard to play HAL "dead on" as Rain did.

I ran a thread around here a year or so ago to make the point that of all the actors in Psycho, Martin Balsam probably had the longest and most rewarding career afterwards. Janet Leigh rather aged out of her stardom by the mid-sixties, and Tony Perkins lost the rhythm of leading man hood. But Hollywood always needs its character guys, and in the 60s and 70s, Martin Balsam was on the short list of the Best(where John Goodman and Samuel L. Jackson are now.) So he's in Breakfast at Tiffany's , Seven Days in May, The Carpetbaggers, Hombre...All the President's Men...

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AN article in the NYTimes last week, no doubt timed with the films 50th anniversary goes into detail with the casting of HAL. Kubrick hired Balsam just after he won the Oscar for A THousand Clowns. Balsam recalled later that he was paid an "oscar winning' salary just to sit in front of a mike reading his lines. Kubrick also hired Rain to read narration for The Dawn of Man and Jupiter and Beyond the Infinite sections. Later, he decided to scrap the narration, and also not use Balsam's voice which he decided was too "colloquially American", so Rain got the part and recorded all of HAL's dialogue in just 2 days.

And Rain (who's still with us) claims that to this day he has never seen the film!

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AN article in the NYTimes last week, no doubt timed with the films 50th anniversary goes into detail with the casting of HAL. Kubrick hired Balsam just after he won the Oscar for A THousand Clowns. Balsam recalled later that he was paid an "oscar winning' salary just to sit in front of a mike reading his lines.

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I hope Balsam got to keep it. (And I'll bet his "Thousand Clowns" Oscar win made for his raising his asking price.)

This reminds me of when Paramount paid Bob Hoskins big bucks to play Al Capone in The Untouchables after Bob DeNiro said "no." Suddenly, DeNiro said "yes." Hoskins was replaced by DeNiro...but got to keep his pay in full. Said Hoskins,"any time anyone else wants to pay me top dollar NOT to appear in their movie, I am available!"

Which reminds me. John Gavin as James Bond in Diamonds are Forever. Same deal, when Sean Connery said "yes" to a return after first saying "no." Gavin got paid in full.

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Kubrick also hired Rain to read narration for The Dawn of Man and Jupiter and Beyond the Infinite sections. Later, he decided to scrap the narration, and also not use Balsam's voice which he decided was too "colloquially American", so Rain got the part and recorded all of HAL's dialogue in just 2 days.

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Which reminds me. Janet Leigh only worked three weeks on Psycho -- one in a shower. Three weeks work for immortality on screen.

You can figure that Martin Balsam worked even less time on Psycho-- probably between one and two weeks. Immortality for him, too.

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And Rain (who's still with us) claims that to this day he has never seen the film

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I find things like that....very strange.

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And I've got a matching anecdote for that one ,too:

Robert Redford claimed not to watch his films in general, and he skipped seeing The Sting even though it won Best Picture and its the only film for which he got a Best Actor nom. (He tried hard for one just a few years ago with "All is Lost" but...no deal. Hollywood and Redford always had a prickly relationship.)

So, Redford never saw The Sting. Until decades later, when, as a "grandpa," he was at the video store with his grandkids , saw The Sting on the racks and said, "Hey, I was in this when I was a lot younger. I hear its pretty good. Wanna watch it?" They did, and Redford finally saw The Sting decades after it hit big.

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It would be interesting to see how the old age Dullea compares to the makeup in the film. Movies so often get aging of actors wrong, most famously Welles in CItizen Kane.Also, Giant, where Hudson develops a hefty paunch while Taylor remains slim and regal, and Dean (we'll never know!)

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It would be interesting to see how the old age Dullea compares to the makeup in the film. Movies so often get aging of actors wrong, most famously Welles in CItizen Kane.Also, Giant, where Hudson develops a hefty paunch while Taylor remains slim and regal, and Dean (we'll never know!)

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I think those examples are more from "the olden days" when make-up simply wasn't that sophisticated.

Another "bad" example: the "aged" James Stewart and Vera Miles in the opening and closing of "The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance"(currently starring on another thread here.)

Modern make-up techniques seem to be aging actors more realistically. Though Brando's Godfather was good work in 1972(A 47-year old man looking 65 or so, believably.)

All that said, I'm at a loss to compare some actor who is "old now" to how they looked with "old age make-up" then.

Trivia: Tom Hanks made a movie called "The Green Mile," and in the final scenes, he needed to be aged out another 30 years in age. He shot the scenes in old age make-up, but it was determined that Hanks looked too fake. So another old actor was cast and the scenes were re-shoot: Dabbs Greer, a veteran of 50s and 60s movies.

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Very, very cool idea. 2001 is probably THE monumental film of 1968(though my personal favorite is Bullitt, which will get an anniversary showing at the TCM film festival in April.)

I suspect the only thing against it is that whereas "Warren and Faye" were hometown Hollywood insiders, Kubrick never really was, there was no warmth towards the England-dwelling American, and is little retained knowledge of who Dullea and Lockwood were.

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Two days to Oscar and no word on whether or not 2001 will get honored, but in the "Oscar/Movie issue" of Vanity Fair (March?) there IS a long article on the making of 2001, and Keir Dullea IS interviewed today, so I guess he didn't disappear off the face of the earth. (I don't know about Gary Lockwood -- dead or alive?) It is noted that Balsam's voice was rejected for HAL as "too American," that a British voice was rejected as "too British," and so a Canadian was selected as a compromise (Douglas Rain.)

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Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (MINOR SPOILERS)

I have seen this Oscar front runner, under somewhat special circumstances.

It was offered on my cable channel's Pay Per View with the promotion "See Three Billboards Before the Oscars."

The Oscars are tomorrow. So I paid the dough and saw the film.

The last time I did it this way, the movie was "The Hurt Locker" that won Best Picture.

I have a feeling -- again posting with 24 hours to go -- that this will win, too.

Though I guess The Shape of Water could beat it -- but I feel that there is so much more "density of narrative" to Three Billboards, so many, many, MANY expertly played plot twists along the way, that its really not much of a contest.

For some distance, I even kinda sorta felt like I could pick Three Billboards as MY favorite of the year -- its script should probably beat the nominated script for my personal favorite film -- Aaron Sorkin's "Molly's Game" -- and I think the script deserves a win. If for the moment I'm liking Molly's Game better its because I think I'll be more inclined to watch Molly's Game again. "Three Billboards" plays out all its twists and is pretty heavy going.

I regret that these OT Oscar threads have gotten so long I could not find swanstep's writings on Three Billboards, so I'll toss mine in and go looking afterwards.

And I've read enough reviews to know what folks seem to be thinking. The playwright/filmmaker has In Bruges and Seven Psychopaths on his resume, and rather like Curtis Hanson on LA Confidential, they don't really prepare us for the density and thematic power of THIS story. The few reviews I've looked at like Three Billboards -- but nobody seems to have thought it would be Best Picture frontrunner. A bit too flawed, too one note, too "contrived." And yet, clearly powerful. Angst-ridden, ya might say.


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Much like -- hah! -- Family Plot, the tale depends on neatly contrived coincidences that seem arranged to suggest a higher power(not necessarily THAT higher power, just a "movie" higher power.

Examples (lightly spoiling)

A character attacks a character and throws him out a window. There is a witness to the incident, a man we have never seen before. THAT witness proves very important to the story.

A character burns a place down just as ANOTHER character is in that place, which was supposed to be empty.

A character sits down in a bar booth just in time to hear something important being said in the other booth.

These incidents multiply out so much in "Three Billboards" that you can't really blame it for "suspension of disbelief" problems -- these suspensions are practically the whole point in the movie.

But much as in Hitchcock, these contrivances and coincidences feel like great twists, a story being masterfully told. And ALSO as with Hitchcock, the characters trump the "plot"(I'm thinking Vertigo here, though one character lives alone with, and is far too close to, his mother.)

The film dovetails nicely with the "Me Too" movement. When McDormands character tells off a priest by noting how the law can indict gang members "just for joining the gang" if other gang members do bad(kill people, or, in the priest's case, molest children) they are "culpable." Culpable, says McDormand, for "turning a blind eye." Well, how about Affleck and Damon and QT, yah?


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The film takes up racial matters with a directness from the beginning that doubles back on itself. We have Woody Harrelson's magnificently well-balanced police chief character noting, "If we kicked out all the cops with racial bias, we'd have three left -- and they'd all hate the (gays)." (But Harrelson proves a stand-up guy.) We have Sam Rockwell's racist cop correcting McDormand that he doesn't beat "n-words" he beats "people of color." There is a jokiness all through Three Billboards that seems calculated to undercut the heavy angst and relentless tragedy of the piece. Its a good script(by the director himself.)

As with The Shape of Water, Three Billboards reminds us that there are always a ton of good actors available who will JUMP to take small roles in great scripts. Here, Peter Dinklage and John Hawkes do the honors, even as McDormand, Harrelson, and Rockwell have the leads. Dinklage and Hawkes are great apart -- and have one great scene together.

I suppose with both The Shape of Water and Three Billboards, we are again learning that the modern-day Oscars may be about "movies few people see" but these Best Picture possibilities surprise us by coming out of nowhere. Back in the day, I'll bet the Academy knew that movies like Ben-Hur, West Side Story and Lawrence of Arabia were Best Pictures from the day production was announced. But Shape and Billboards had to creep up unannounced and suddenly make guys like DelToro and the Billboards director hot stuff with Best Picture possibilities.

I feel that I saw a real MOVIE with Three Billboards, and not just pre-programmed Oscar bait. It plays hard and mean ...and sad and merciless...and funny and wry. All at the same time.

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I'm still thinking that Margot Robbie "did more" with the physical demands of I Tanya, but McDormand's got a classic character to play, one hell of a tough broad, with some inkling of a heart of gold, but not much. I can see this winning Picture, Screenplay, and Actress. I see Rockwell winning Best Supporting Actor, but I'd give it to Harrelson(who is also nominated.) Part of the issue is that Harrelson simply has more star charisma than Rockwell, and a more admirable man to play.(Harrelson's narration-reading of various letters he sends to key characters is great vocal performance.)

I'll know in 24 hours. I'm prepared to be wrong all over the place.

Like that time in 1975 when I predicted that Chinatown would win 1974's Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, and Screenplay Oscars. One out of five ain't bad.

PS. "God as my witness." The pay per view ended, I flipped to regular cable and there was...Psycho about to begin. Encore is still playing it. Tonight, sandwiched between The Birds and Torn Curtain.

I passed. Psycho only has one twist. Billboards has about twenty one.....

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