Well, again this is only speculation, but here's what could've happened.
If Superman had not been given the ability to fly via the Fliescher Cartoons, and Fawcett had won the legal battle and allowed to keep publishing Captain Marvel, at that time period Captain Marvel would've surpassed Superman.
Captain Marvel really had the unique edge in that kids could still identify with him because they could percieve themselves as Billy Batson, or even other characters like Captain Marvel JR or Mary Marvel. Long before Superboy's adventures came along, and before Supergirl ever came to be, the Marvel Family (heck, the first superhero series to create a "Family" cast of characters which would become the norm by the 1970s with DC Comics like "Batman Family" & "Superman Family") appealed to a wide range of readers. Handicaped children could become Captain Marvel JR, and girls could relate to Mary Marvel. Even older generations could relate to Uncle Marvel, and the Marvel mythos was sustainably rooted in mythology (SHAZAM = Solomon, Herculeas, Achilles, Zeus, Atlas, & Mercury if I remember correctly). Captain Marvel was a favorite of soldiers during the 1940s-early 1950s as well as kids.
If Fawcett did not have to cease publication there's little doubt that Captain Marvel would've survived the comics turbulance of the 1950s, even if Superman was historically as he is now. Yet with a non-flying Superman, and an added appeal to kids, if Fawcett had put Captain Marvel back into the extended media in the 1950s the popularity would've exploded via more serials, TV show, and more.
If you look at Superman comics, they didn't really change much from the 1950s to the 1960s in tone, and it wasn't until the early 1970s that things got shook up a bit. Captain Marvel would've benefitted from the campy 1960s Batman TV Show, and if a Captain Marvel show had never been cancelled from the 1950s, well, it may have been a property to give Bat-Mania a run for its money on competition (even if the live action Captain Marvel series was rebooted with 1966 camp in mind to compete). Historically, by the 1970s when Captain Marvel did return to the limelight it was too late for a successful revival of the character, in fact because Marvel Comics made their own "Captain Marvel" in 1967/1968 when DC revived the original they had to rename the property as "Shazam!", which didn't help Cap's brand identity. If Captain Marvel had been in continuous use from the 1940s on then Marvel Comics' character would've been a trademark infringement.
Despite comics getting darker in the 1970s, if Captain Marvel had been continuous and appeared in other popular media of the era, then the character would've gained the kind of ingrained status that Superman did. The older generations would be introducing the younger generations to the character without any interruption. The generation gap from the early 1950s to the early 1970s when the character returned to publication historically is a major factor in the character's current stature. He missed out on a huge chunk of the Silver Age that could've added more to the character and enriched the character's mythos in a similar manner as it did to Superman, Batman, and Wonder Woman during that time. Captain Marvel always seemed to be a step ahead of Superman (flying first, first on the big screen in live action, etc.) and if allowed to weather out the Silver Age there's no telling how far he could've come as a character.
Captain Marvel might not have needed to go dark because his success could've been sustained with the overturning market of younger kids, and as those kids got older then there'd be a nostalgia factor that could help increase the money made from interpretations in other media. In theory some characters might've been killed off or dropped over time, included more social commentary, and evolved with the times in continuous publication. By the 1980s or 1990s there'd be a reboot of the character as what happened with "Power Of Shazam!", or with Superman with "Man Of Steel". In 1993 it could've been Captain Marvel's death spurring headlines as by then a flightless Superman may have only been a minor character.
The reason in real history Captain Marvel's comeback in the 1970s wasn't very big, was because when the book started back up it was like the Golden Age wasn't over. It picked up where it left off, and by the 1970s his campy TV appearances were already outdated. Batman & Wonder Woman lucked out from their comedic shows, but by the time of "Shazam!" people had moved onto the more dramatic "The Incredible Hulk" TV show. So when Captain Marvel did finally make his live action TV debut, it was like beating a dead horse. If Captain Marvel had been on TV in incarnations since the 1950s, he would've had a better chance at survival.
True, the Marvel Era could've killed Fawcett too. It's the key of other media that could've kept Fawcett alive though. Marvel didn't shine in cartoons until the late 1960s with Fantastic Four & Spiderman. Their other 1960s cartoons literally had no movement at all. If Filmation had pursued Captain Marvel as a cartoon in 1966 instead of Superman, then a lot of things might be different today. In fact, "He-Man" might not even have come to be. If Captain Marvel cartoons were successful at Filmation from the beginning, why would Filmation do another character with the similar premise of being a young person (Prince Adam) using magic words to become a mighty hero (He-Man)? It'd conflict and have two of their own shows competing against one another in a fashion that could've split viewers between the shoes resulting in both getting canceled because the audience would be split, especially if they aired on different networks.
Now, if Superman didn't get the ability to fly in the 1940s, if the character survived into the 1970s to be one of the Super Friends, then he would've gained flight. Even the Flash gained flight in that cartoon! Yet just as Captain Marvel was hampered by being out of the picture in the 1950s-1960s (in reality), by the time Superman gained flight in the 1970s the damage would be done...no George Reeves TV Show, no big budget Christopher Reeve movie, and Captain Marvel would be reveered as an American icon instead of Superman. It would've been too little too late for Supes.
Today it's hard to write Captain Marvel because he missed out on the Silver Age. There isn't any silver age workings to draw inspiration from, to update, or explore. They find it hard to translate the Captain Marvel origins into modern times, and he lacks the massive accumulated rogues galleries that Batman & Superman developed in the Silver Age. Seriously, some low-rent 1950s Batman villains actually moved up the ladder through various incarnations. The 1966 Adam West TV Show used villains that were forgetable and made them memorable (like changing Mr. zero into Mr. Freeze, who'd grow even more due to the 1990s Batman Animnated Series).
I have a feeling these posts could be turning into a college theisis and dissertation!
Sincerely,
Exchronos
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