Chances of a Supporting Actor nod?

First off, I liked Public Enemies very much. Depp was spectacular and Bale was alright in my opinion, but a surprising performance was one by Stephen Graham. His portrayal of Baby Face Nelson was spot on and really shined in his roughly 30-40(tops) minutes of screentime. Some people say barely over a half hour of screentime could warrant a Supporting Actor nod, especially in a 2 hr. 20 min. film by Michael Mann. However Michael Shannon proved to us that his performance in 'Revolutionary Road' (which he had seriously only 15 minutes of screentime) yielded an Oscar nod from the Academy however fell to the late and great Heath Ledger.

To sum this all up, what do you think are the chances Graham gets nominated. I have been reading all these posts saying how Graham was a shocker in 'Public Enemies' and delivered a dazzling and unexpected performance.


Also, in your opinion, list the other favorites for Best Supporting Actor thus far in the year. I am not trying to say that Graham was hands down the best Supporting Actor in 2009 period, I am just asking everyone's input on the subject and see who you guys actually think deserve an Oscar nod.