Not necessarily a great actress and doesn't really take chances, but she is reasonably talented and smart.

I'm not clear on your angle here. What chances should she be taking that she hasn't already?

Doubt and Arrival prove that she's somewhat better than the mediocre actress you seem to be insinuating she is. I'm not sure though, it sounds like you're kind of on the fence about her yourself.

She's phuqable, but not much more. Thought that alien movie was so dumb. I did like her in the hustler one though.

It's weird.
I think she is a very good actress, but she doesn't own her characters even as well as she plays them.
I think any other woman could fill the roles she plays.

If her character in Hillbilly Elegy is not a great performance and a rather big chance to take then I don't know what else could could count for you...