Norton to win Oscar for Birdman

So, i just saw birdman in theatre, and i must say that I think he is going to win an oscar for supporting actor this year. He owned every scene that he was in, he was outstanding in my opinion. A reason for why he wouldn't get one could be that the role was too close to his real self, and therefore not oscar-worthy. Do you agree? Do you think somebody else has a better chance for the oscar?