When did he lose his 'sure-fire' status?

It was right around 2000. Six Days Seven Nights was a moderate success. Followed by Random Hearts and What Lies Beneath, both smallish films. Then some huge stumbles with K-19 and Hollywood Homicide, followed by Firewall. I don't think it's a coincidence he went back to Indiana Jones after that box office fizzling run.

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He's always been a physical actor. Now he's getting old. It happens

He has never been a sure thing, your using selective memory and ignoring all the box office failures he has had long the way.

1970's he made Hanover Street which was a flop
1980's he made the lovely Mosquito Coast which was a flop
1990's he made Regarding Henry which may have barely broken even, but most likely still lost money when you factor in the marketing
2000's he did Crossing Over, complete failure with a worldwide box office take of 3.5 million against a near 20 million budget.
2010's Paranoia... another flop.

And that's just a list of one failure from each decade. In some decades he had quite a few failures. The reality is he was simply lucky enough to be in the Star Wars and Indiana Jones franchises which have always seemed to be around to give him a boost after making some dog shit movies.... many were lower budget failures but he also had some big budget turds as well, Cowboys and Aliens or Hollywood Homicide, come to mind. So while many have always thought his name was a license to print money there is quite a list of movies where he proved that wasn't the case.

Air Force One was his last big hit as an action star while he was still in his prime.

ON HIS 93RD BIRTHDAY...ITS BEEN AWHILE.

I don't remember seeing anything staring Harrison after 1997 with Air Force 1. He was da' bomb in the 80's and early 90's.

Around the same time the earring appeared.