The Monty Hall problem
Anyone heard of this ? It’s wrecking my brainshare
sure. it's often used as an example of how the correct answer to something isn't intuitive. our ape brains weren't built to grok even simple statistics.share
"The problem is a paradox of the veridical type, because the correct choice (that one should switch doors) is so counterintuitive it can seem absurd, but is nevertheless demonstrably true. The Monty Hall problem is mathematically closely related to the earlier Three Prisoners problem and to the much older Bertrand's box paradox." - from the wiki articleshare
As an accountant you are better at numbers than me (I stink)
But the whole point is that it is not 50/50, which as said is completely counterintuitive, but provable. The reasoning and the math (see article) is over my head.
the article is too long. but did anyone ever calculate how many times the guest won? i bet it would be close to 50%share
that's right. it's not 50/50.
if you switch, you have a 2/3s chance of winning if you stick, you remain at 1/3.
I've had a good amount of success with taking calculated risks in my life, which involves both careful, conscious analysis coupled with a measure of intuition.share
While it makes sense to switch doors, if you do switch and then find out you had picked the car in the beginning, that's really gotta burn. You had the car and you gave it up.share
And miss out on all of Cadillac's famous power accessories
But those weren't cars, they're land yachts.share
Statistics are the tools of charlatans and liars. One can use statistics to support many a spurious idea.
Ever hear about .99999999(ad-infinitum) being equal to 1? The Monty Hall problem seems to rely on a grand scheme of things rather than individual choice. The psychology of the one giving the choices, etc.
Statistics also happen to be pretty good tools for the the rest of us too.
Those Bertrand and Prisoner paradoxes are interesting and seem more valid than this one.
"Ever hear about .99999999(ad-infinitum) being equal to 1?"
I actually know how to prove that. I know, it's not very rock and roll is it?
I know the story. I understand the math. However, it feels like a chink in the armor of the "language of the universe." I want math to be a solid footing underneath me. The fact that .99999999~ can be proven to be 1 is like an oops by God. Like nipples on men.
Oh Math, you disappoint me.
But, if I win the goat, then I won’t have to mow the lawn anymore.share
I didn’t believe it when it was first told to me but after drawing out a probability tree where you draw out all possible paths at each stage and the probability of going through each path then it made sense. I think the reason it isn’t 50/50 is because in the experiment you don’t re-randomize the doors after the first empty door (or with a goat) is revealed.share