A new COVID-19 forecast predicts more than 400,000 deaths (doubled from now) in the US by the end of 2020. (source: https://news.yahoo.com/a-new-covid-19-forecast-predicts-more-than-400000-deaths-by-the-end-of-2020-will-the-fall-wave-really-be-that-big-215402962.html)
People around the world, are you physically, mentally, and financially prepared for the fall wave?
I just hope we all make it to the 7th wave.
https://youtu.be/HxXcD3tKCq4
The Empty Chair - Sting
https://youtu.be/BbnGYojALgY
It happened in 1918. It's inevitable. Sadly, the U.S. never got past the first wave and will go directly into the second with no respite in between.
That's too bad because fall is my favorite season with all the holidays plus football and hockey. Christmas should be interesting this year.
Medical science has advanced so much since 1918. Yet as a social species, we have not evolved enough to prevent deadly viruses from spreading and crippling our society.
Our ancestors lived through many plagues, famines, and wars. We have to get mature and be responsible to deal with threats like this. And hopefully, there will be many colorful falls ahead of us.
The 1918 flu was something much different though. Remember the Spanish flu had a high mortality rate for young healthy adults, not just the very young and old. They implemented social distancing practices back then too; closing public gatherings, theaters, and schools. In contrast, although Covid is certainly deadly, it is not nearly as a deadly as to young healthy adults and even children.
We'll see how this plays out. A lot more people will die as we enter flu season with Covid still around.
Who the hell knows? One day at a time.
sharePeople who are intelligent, who value lives more than anything else, who respect science and facts, who have experience of fighting other deadly viruses, who learn their lesson from the past, all know it. Can you find out who they are and then pay attention to their messages? Because your "One day at a time" is definitely not a winning strategy.
shareBlah blah blah. There SO much conflicting information out there. If you think you know, you're sadly deluded.
shareScience has been wrong MANY times. I completely respect science. But it's not correct about everything. Especially when there's an agenda backing that science.
shareDo you know that proving something wrong in science could win you the Nobel Prize? Serious scientists probably won't give a damn about your so-call agenda. Let's leave the skepticism to the professional, OK?
sharehttps://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2015/10/nobel_prizes_awarded_for_disproved_discoveries.html
Science has been wrong many times, OK?
Yes. Science is self-correcting. I thought I have already acknowledged that.
shareCould be grossly inaccurate. Here are some quotes directly from the article you posted:
"To get a sense of how wrong the IHME forecast could be, it’s worth comparing it with a different model. At covid19-projections.com, Youyang Gu, an independent data scientist trained at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has been using a data-driven approach with a layer of artificial intelligence (read: fewer subjective assumptions) to forecast the trajectory of the pandemic."
"Incidentally, Gu’s model has been the most accurate to date — far more accurate, in fact, than the IHME’s, which has fluctuated wildly and rarely matched reality."
That being said, I would not be surprised if things get a lot worse as we get into flu season and I also wonder how many flu deaths will get lumped into Covid death counts.
At covid19-projections.com, Here is what it says about the second wave:
Second wave
In regions where the outbreak has not yet been fully contained, it is possible that reopening will cause a second wave of infections if states fail to maintain sufficient social distancing. We assume that regions that have reopened will take actions to reduce transmission, such as increased contact tracing, mandatory mask wearing, improved treatments, capacity limits, etc. Over time, the aforementioned actions, as well as the natural progression of the virus, will lead to a reduction in the transmission rate.
In states where a second wave is prevalent, infections appear to reach a peak before undergoing a decline, despite a lack of concrete mitigation measures. One theory is that there is a certain subset of the population that are more susceptible to contracting the virus (old age, co-morbidities, unwillingness to take precautions, etc). Once that group is exhausted, it becomes harder for the virus to spread, leading to a decline in transmission despite no government intervention. Note that this is merely a theory to explain the observed data.
As of June 1, our model no longer assumes a second lockdown.
Sounds plausible, IF measures are taken to contain. IMO, I think a second wave will happen because it spread so easily, but the lethality of the disease will remain in the elderly populations.
I think a second lockdown is inevitable because Covid has that same symptoms as the common cold and flu. All it is going to take is some people getting sick, it might not even be Covid, and that will be enough for the politicians to panic and shut it all down.
Stock up on the toilet paper lol
Do you remember President Trump saying "we lose thousands and thousands of people a year to the flu. We don't turn the country off." ? Actually, CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations, and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010. At that time, I was wondering why is that supposed to be normal? Why didn't they lock down the clusters to save "thousands and thousands of people" dying from deadly flu? Maybe you didn't realize it, but while you saying "many flu deaths will get lumped into COVID death counts", you seem to have a similar idea as if "COVID deaths are bad, flu deaths are normal.". Is it? At least, we could agree that it would be a disaster when hospitals are overwhelmed by patients, regardless of flu or COVID. Right?
shareNo, I don't pay much attention to Emperor Trump.
But aren't flu deaths normal because of consistency? And covid is not normal because it is an entirely new disease?
My point for saying that covid deaths will get lumped into flu deaths is that they both have similar symptoms and will we see a deflated amount of flu deaths with an increase in covid? But, I guess they can test for that, so maybe that wouldn't be the case and I have no idea how accurate the reports are on hospitals inflating covid deaths for additional funding. Some of what is reported seems to be certainly questionable.
Hospitals weren't overwhelmed back in February-April so I don't think they will be in the second wave as long as similar precautions are taken. My thoughts are that the article that you posted is more fear mongering and a worst case scenario situation. The author even sites conflicting data and says the IHME's projections have "rarely matched reality" so why even post this headline or write this piece?
No, howgamer. That article is a fairly good news piece, included different points of view in the discussion. I share the same concern as IHME's pointed out
America continues “the gradual easing of social distancing mandates” and refuses to “re-impose” them even if the pandemic worsens — essentially pursuing the sort of natural “herd immunity” strategy. I am afraid the whole world is headed for the worst-case scenario because I feel the frustration and unwillingness to reverse in everyone including you.
I disagree, I feel it is just clickbait.
I'm not sure how I am unwilling to reverse, I'm not even really sure what that means, but I think I made it clear that I think a second lockdown is coming and shutdown procedures will be put back in place. Masks should be required and I don't see those restrictions being lifted until probably next summer/fall, maybe.
Yes, you're right, people should prepare and I didn't say they shouldn't.
Yes I am thanks.
shareNext phase, new wave, dance craze, anyways
It's still rock and roll to me…
No taste, no date, cough craze, always
Dang, pew pew pew pew- Dang...
https://youtu.be/j9V78UbdzWI
Yes I’m quite ready.
share