NBA Finals odds and predictions- what are your picks?
I won’t list the all the odds for the oddsmakers and online books, but the general consensus has the top two teams as the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers, both anywhere from 2 to 1 to 2.5 to 1....the Los Angeles Clippers are a close third pick at 3/1 to 3.5/1....after that there is a drop off in odds, with a four team combo of the Boston Celtics, Houston Rockets, Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers ranging from 12/1 to 22/1....converting it from American money line to fraction odds, it’s worth noting that the top three favorites opened between a consensus 6/1 to 10/1 and then dropped considerably to their current odds, meaning most of the money was immediately placed on those three favorites as soon as the book started taking picks...no way of telling if that’s casual money or smart money- it’s probably a combination of both, in my analyzed opinion....after all, those three were clearly the best three before the shutdown....what does that all mean?....that’s for you to decide, it’s just my habit to look at numbers and trends among other factors when I make an objective choice on which teams I think will make the final 2...
This is almost unprecedented— the closest situation we’ve had to this one is the 1999 lockout-shortened season of 50 games....quality of play was noticeable from the start, but it didn’t affect the eventual champs, the San Antonio Spurs, who took the best overall record while securing a No. 1 seed....it was a bit different for the Eastern Conference bracket that year, as Uncle Shogie’s 8-seeded New York Knicks took advantage of some sluggish play and made an improbable run to the Finals, where they were promptly disposed in 5 games by the Spurs....while I think there’s a possibility something like that could happen again— a lower seed making a run— it’s tough to gauge because the reasons for this pause in play were different, and player preparation in modern times is starkly different....in ‘99, players came in not-so-great shape, while today’s athletes work out year round and most likely did the same during the pandemic...these are just a few things I take into consideration...
Since the top two teams are from opposite conferences, it’s easy to pick the Bucks and the Lakers and call it a day...but I’m not sure it’s that easy....in the West, the Clippers match up well with their Staples Center partners and they’re the one team that can match the Lakers’ collective talent...and now without Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo for our brother KOWALSKI’s Lake Show, the Clippers may be a bit better defensively, which is huge in the playoffs...but I do think one of those two teams will come out of the West....I keep hearing the Portland Trail Blazers as a sleeper, but I don’t see it...I think most of that is based on the fact that Jusef Nurkic benefitted from the long break and will be able to suit up this year, along with the already solid guard duo of Lillard and McCollum....I’ll make a not so bold prediction in my view: the Rockets will NOT make the finals despite their 4th to 7th favorite status....
The Bucks are the obvious top dog in the East, but the conference is a bit more balanced and competitive so I can see a lot of different scenarios there....the Celtics have the talent and good coaching, so they’ll compete...the Raptors obviously have the experience and mettle, and though they proved last year they could win with a Kawhi Leonard playing in just 75 percent of the games, along with this year’s win total, they’ll have to do it with Leonard not playing in 100 percent of their games this time around....Siakam is good, but I’m not sure if he’s ready to carry them every time during clutch time...the Sixers are good, but they had outstanding shooters last year and couldn’t win, their shooting is not as good this year so there’s that; still, they’re too talented to count out...sleepers here include the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers...
That’s my info for you....is yours different?...what say you?...what are your Finals picks, and what team do you think will win it all?