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Will the July releases cannibalize each other?


Spider-Man, Planet of the Apes, and Dunkirk are all released in back-to-back weekends. Spider-Man is riding the Avengers popularity wave rather than being associated with an unpopular reboot. Nolan films pretty much always do well regardless of the subject matter. So with that in mind, I see War for the Planet of the Apes getting the worst of it and falling short of 200 million.

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I think Dunkirk is the hardest sell of the three. I know, Nolan the God and whatever, but Interstellar didn't hit $200m and a World War II movie isn't going to be easier to market than a hard sci-fi.

Spider-Man has the advantage of being in the MCU. Apes has the advantage of being the 3rd movie in a very well received reboot franchise. I can see Spider-Man clearing $300m, $400m if it's a great crowdpleaser, and Apes clearing $250m.

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Sounds about right.

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I think they will all do really well, but Spider-Man will win the battle. Dunkirk and War of the Planet of the Apes will get about 500 million, while Spidey will come incredibly close to the 1 billion mark.

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I don't think so. There are normally about 3 big releases each July and everything usually comes out OK in the end. Dunkirk is the hardest sell of those three, though.

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"Dunkirk" will be the only film to suffer, but not by much. It could bring in 450 million or 500 million dollars worldwide. And if it costs less than 200 million dollars to make, it could break even.

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a World War II movie isn't going to be easier to market than a hard sci-fi.

One can imagine that WB are hoping for a Saving Private Ryan run with a July release (as well as probably being superstitious about Nolan films normally doing well that month). Then one remembers that Ryan was 18 years ago, and maybe that's not such a great idea.

I can see Spider-Man clearing $300m, $400m if it's a great crowdpleaser, and Apes clearing $250m.

Whilst the addition of Iron Man means it's not going to drop, I think Spider-Man is going to be in the awkward position of being yet another reboot in an incredibly short space of time, and has to make up for the perceived failings of the ASM films. I think there's certainly a good chance that it will be the best one we've seen since Spider-Man 2, but I'm not sold on the numbers it can pull in, until we see some trailers and the like.

I'd love to see another uptick for the Apes, since I was very taken with the last two films, but it's discouraging that Dawn didn't make huge domestic gains on Rise, despite having plenty of room to do so.

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I think "Dunkirk" will be the surprise big financial success next summer. It is the last of those three to come out. It appeals to older viewers. I think it has the smallest drop of the three and best legs. I think it easily crosses 200 million. And 300 million isn't too crazy of a prediction if it's reviews are really good and has exceptional WOM. Other than the new "Alien" movie it has no competition for adult viewers in all of August. "Spiderman" will of course make the most money of the three. I think it's going to be a massive hit, maybe even bigger than GOTG: VOL2. I think 200 million opening is likely for it

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You can add Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets released the same day as Dunkirk, too, assuming no one move.

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