Why Transformers 5 will make 150 million or less

God, your shtick is getting old.

T5 looks novel and good.

To compare midweek openers with Friday openers I like to take the first 7 days instead of the first FSS, and if you do that TF4 had the same legs as TF2.

I'm split on whether transformers or pirates will underperform by a lot. To me they feel like they're in the same category of genetic bad blockbuster at this point.

Transformers has kept up more momentum having had a movie in 2014, however neighbors and TMNT had movies that were enjoyable enough in 2014 with sequels that did very poorly 2 years later.

Pirates to me feels more like an unnecessary sequel, however it's getting released first so maybe audiences grab that one and dump transformers. Also I trust Disney's general quality control more than pretty much any studio's right now.

So yeah, I'm starting to lean to your side that transformers will drop a lot and pirates will hold up better.

Pirates is flopping too. It is this years Alice 2

But could it possibly flop as hard as your multiple threads and your facile arguments?

Nah. 


"Security - release the badgers."

Ugh... I can see it making under a billion worldwide but I don't think it will flop.
Alice flopped because it didn't got much attention and it was released against X-Men Apocalypse. Plus none really asked for it. POTC has many fans that will support it. And it's already talked about.

The OP still didnt get the memo that Transformers is CRITIC proof.

With the exception of the first movie, all of the Transformers movies have been slammed HARD by professional critics.

Transformers.............57%
Revenge of the Fallen....19%
Dark of the Moon.........35%
Age of Extinction........18%

By your logic, the difference between Dark of the Moon and Age of Extinction should be massive due to the latters poor rating, and yet.

Dark of the Moon.....= Worldwide: $1,123,794,079
Age of Extinction....= Worldwide: $1,104,054,072

even if The Last Knight dips in profit, the kind of money the movie will STILL make will likely dwarf most other movies released in the same year.

Transformers having a bad day is still better than most franchises good ones.



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International expansion in markets liked China helped keep the worldwide numbers at a steady level.

But after the 2nd film, each film has dropped domestically from the previous entry. TF3 introduced 3D, and the premium ticket prices that go with it, and still declined by $50M. TF4 dropped $107M domestically from TF3.

I certainly think a domestic drop is in store for Transformers 5, I'm just not sure if it will be by a massive margin, but honestly, under $200M domestic would not shock me at all.

I'm also unsure if the international numbers will be able to 'make up' for the domestic drop like they did with TF3 and TF4

Similar story when comparing the 5 Spider-Man movies. Before TASM2 came out I postulated that it would have another domestic drop from the franchise, because every film since the first Raimi film had dropped domestically from the previous film....people called me crazy. Then TASM2 comes out and has the lowest domestic gross of any Spider-Man ever.

So again, not saying TF5 will see a massive drop, to the point of being a 'flop' or even a failure, but at this point, nobody should be surprised if it is the lowest grossing film domestically, and starts to see lesser results internationally.