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Predict your death toll in the US from SARS-CoV-2 (aka CCP Virus)

posted 4 years ago by Rorikon (16368)
24 replies | jump to latest

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

14,797 atm, 20-35k is my estimate. Way under the 100-250k mitigation model that helps to drive fear into the population.

Update: New model now suggests 82k to die. Deaths jumped to 16,504. Meanwhile ground zero China that ignores doctors warning for spreading false info etc. etc. sits snuggly at 3,335 deaths.

Update 2: 45,126 deaths as of April 21st. Ground0 China at 4,632 deaths.

[–] elcamino (15540) 4 years ago

25K is my thought but really it could go higher with New York really throwing out numbers to get government money.Typical crook in that state.Key word assumed. Just write china virus so you don't have to spend the money on a autopsy.

“COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.”

[–] christomacin (4527) 4 years ago

Anywhere between 30,000 and 80,000 is possible. Really hard to say... so many factors in play. If you add up all the deaths in Western Europe so far it's about 60,000 dead. The population size and geographic area of all of Western Europe (with maybe a few Eastern European countries like Poland, Hungary, Romania added in) is fairly comparable with that of the United States. So if it is possible there it's possible here.

[–] elcamino (15540) 4 years ago

Wow that is a bunch of lieing to get it over the regular amount of just suicides in the US.

[–] christomacin (4527) 4 years ago

Lying... about what? The number of dead in Europe due to COVID 19 (as of today) is what it is, which is about 60,000. We will either do better, about the same or worse. There are only three possibilities:
1) we will track closely to Europe (about 60,000)
2) we will do better than Europe (less than 60,000 - perhaps as low as 30,000, hard to see less than 25,000 though)
3) we will do worse than Europe (over 60,000 - perhaps as high as 80,000 to 100,000)

The number of suicides in the United States is irrelevant, just as the number of suicides in Europe is irrelevant.

EDIT: excluding Russia (which has 76 dead), it depends on how far east you go in Europe. Just strictly looking at Western Europe it's 60,000 dead, adding in all of Eastern Europe gets you close to 62,000 dead. We can't rely on Chinese or Iranian numbers, so Europe is all we have to go on right now, as far as extrapolating for the U.S.A. is concerned.

[–] elcamino (15540) 4 years ago

We will see later in the year end when the suicide and overdose rate reported is so low. But that doesn't come out till after the election.

[–] christomacin (4527) 4 years ago

So wait, you're peddling a conspiracy theory, correct? If anything, I believe governments are UNDER reporting deaths, not the opposite, although their ability to do so is greatly limited compared to China or Iran. But you believe what you like.

[–] elcamino (15540) 4 years ago

Well when CBS goes out and does again a fake thing using Italy for the US after getting caught a few days before. Most people would think of something crooked going on.
CBS Fake News: Uses Footage Of Italian Emergency Room To Show Conditions In New York

[–] christomacin (4527) 4 years ago

Doesn't make the deaths in Italy or New York or anywhere else fake. Unless you're claiming all the worlds doctors and health care workers are in on some mass conspiracy as well. What it does mean is networks like to sensationalize coverage to get bigger ratings. What else is new?

Anyway, that's kind of moving the goal post isn't it? First, it was suicides and overdoses being claimed as COVID 19 deaths. Now, it's CBS using footage shot in Italy being presented as NYC. Prove the first claim first before leapfrogging to a second one. The second claim doesn't prove the first, or vice verse, although the second claim (misleading use of footage) is easier to believe and much easier to pull off.

[–] elcamino (15540) 4 years ago

Not world just New York as why they can't show real pictures. But still numbers don't mean that much to real people. The supreme court confirmed the other day in that Wisconsin voting that the US will only turn communist with honest voting by having that much population wanting it to be.The Democrats can't rush the thing by cheating.. It will get there as I have seen the people getting off the planes to live here and they are all communist.

[–] [deleted] 4 years ago

"The supreme court confirmed the other day in that Wisconsin voting that the US will only turn communist with honest voting by having that much population wanting it to be."

Indeed. Only the very sharpest of political minds could come up with *that* brilliant insight...

Kudos!

[–] kukuxu (5409) 4 years ago

60,000 is the number right now. But unless the south of Europe (Spain and Italy), the rest of the European countries are in an early stage. Final number in Europe is likely to be between 100,000 and 200,000, UK non included.

[–] christomacin (4527) 4 years ago

Yes, but as you see, I can't get many of these people to accept even that number.

[–] kukuxu (5409) 4 years ago

It's not that high. It's more or less like a hard flu season.

[–] christomacin (4527) 4 years ago

What's not that high? The total number of deaths in Western Europe is about 65,000 as of today. Go to the Johns Hopkins website and take out a calculator. Eastern Europe bumps it up to about 67,000. America's death rate per million is lower than Europe's, so there's that good news.

[–] joej2923 (2959) 4 years ago

I'm predicting 150K based on a couple months of 2k deaths per day. I'm expecting a surge in cases due to Easter Sunday gatherings. There are a lot of people who will feel compelled to attend church on Easter Sunday so that will unfortunately lead to more spread of the virus.

I don't believe deaths from the virus can be eliminated without a vaccine/antiviral. The US has a big problem since a lot of adults are obese and obese people have lower survival rates.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8202787/Kansas-lawmakers-OVERTURN-limit-social-gatherings-people-head-church-Easter-Sunday.html

[–] christomacin (4527) 4 years ago

If we factor in mutations and periodic resurgences than those numbers might very well be possible. The uptick in Japan, Iran's seeming inability to surmount the virus, and the painfully slow curve flattening of Italy, Spain, and France are all worrying signs. Let's not forget it's far from over in Europe, either. For the time being I will continue to use Europe as a baseline and have a figure of 50K to 80K in mind. If its lower, great. If being a bit pessimistic now helps keep those lower, then no harm done. If it's higher, I will at least be more mentally prepared for what's coming and able to adjust than those utterly incapable of accepting such numbers due to their political or philosophical persuasions

[–] elcamino (15540) 4 years ago

Notice how they try to pawn off a big deal about a 40% jump,instead of just going with the state has 38 people they save have died instead.

[–] christomacin (4527) 4 years ago

Jumping on every little blip to declare doom or triumph is foolish, I agree. However, that cuts both ways doesn't? Long term trends and decent sample sizes are better.

[–] elcamino (15540) 4 years ago

When we go commie nobody in government will let a investigation go on into all the crooked things that went on to get us there. History of learning about Russia only can speculate all the dead bodies that happened in the going to communism.The same here there will never be a real count for someone in another country to see.

[–] ultravioletx (10212) 4 years ago

409k

[–] christomacin (4527) 4 years ago

That's a nasty little number... hope you're wrong.

[–] ultravioletx (10212) 4 years ago

Me too.

[–] Rorikon (16368) 4 years ago

As of April 21st, 45,126 deaths but the death rate is slowing gradually from 7xx deaths to 5xx a day or two.

I will update my prediction since it already surpassed my previous prediction to 65k in mid-May to about 90k in total. CCP virus doing its work along with American exceptionalism helping it along. Heck, it might even reach the 100k as predicted with mitigation results from CDC.

[–] christomacin (4527) 4 years ago

65K if we're lucky, 100K if we aren't. Since we humans have underestimated this virus at nearly every step, I am currently learning towards unlucky rather than lucky